Result
2:1
18/04/2026 at 23:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 15
- Referee: Rosario I. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping |
 Mexico | Canal 5, TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | CBS Sports Network, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 39% | 61% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (307/365) | 88% (498/567) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.92 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.35 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (307/365) | 88% (498/567) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (21/44) | 43% (18/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (64/90) | 76% (115/152) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/9) | 40% (6/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.34 | 0.86 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 61% (11/18) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.35 | 0.75 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.35 | -1.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 19', Vazquez M. 🟨,
- 44', 1 - 0, Rodriguez B. ⚽, Violante I. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Barbosa D. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 50', 2 - 0, Rodriguez B. ⚽, Zendejas A. (A),
- 52', Violante I. 🟨,
- 53', 2 - 1, Vazquez M. (Own goal),
- 57', Vazquez M. ↓, Juarez R. ↑,
- 57', Violante I. ↓, Alvarez K. ↑,
- 63', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
- 73', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 80', Raphael Veiga ↓, Cervantes A. ↑,
- 86', Borja C. ↓, Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↑,
- 87', Rodriguez B. ↓, Zuniga J. ↑,
- 89', del Villar E. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
- 89', Vega A. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
- 90+7', Helinho 🟥,
Chances of winning
Club América
34.5% | Draw
28.5% | Toluca
37% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Club América has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club América than the current prediction. (+6.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club América, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-5.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Club América - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.69 ↑
(2.37) |
3.26 ↑
(3.25) |
2.53 ↓
(2.7) |
7.4%
(10%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Club América - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. América will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Toluca will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for América: 19% – 81%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América won 1.
- Recent form of América has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- In recent matches, Toluca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in América: Davila V.
(Knee Injury)
Malagon L.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Martin H.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in América: Espinoza D.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Pereira F.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, América won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:25. (average 1.5:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, América won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:6. (average 1.9:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Club América won against Toluca?
Club América has won 5 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Club América?
Toluca has won 5 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Club América - Toluca were as follows:
08.11.2025
Toluca
-
Club América
2:0
20.07.2025
Club América
-
Toluca
1:3
25.05.2025
Toluca
-
Club América
2:0
22.05.2025
Club América
-
Toluca
0:0
01.03.2025
Club América
-
Toluca
3:0
Latest results of Club América
Draw
Clausura - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | UNAM Pumas (1) | Club America (8) | 3 : 3 |
| 2 | Pachuca (4) | Toluca (5) | |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas (2) | Tigres UANL (7) | 1 : 3 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul (3) | Atlas (6) | 3 : 2 |
