Result
1:0
13/02/2026 at 22:05 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 6
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, TUDN |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.87 | 0.32 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (439/501) | 84% (297/355) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.87 | 0.32 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.75 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (439/501) | 84% (297/355) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (20/32) | 55% (22/40) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (97/130) | 63% (32/51) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (5/22) | 19% (3/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.28 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 74% (14/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.94 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.75 | -0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 20', 1 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Ruiz M. (A),
- 30', Simon S. 🟨,
- 31', Ortiz Orozco P. N. 🟨,
- 38', Arciga R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Arciga R. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
- 46', Rivero I. ↓, Blanco D. ↑,
- 62', Diaz J. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 66', Ruiz M. 🟨,
- 75', Angulo J. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
- 76', Preciado A. ↓, Abreu D. ↑,
- 76', Ortiz Orozco P. N. ↓, Vega A. ↑,
- 83', Perez P. ↓, Luan ↑,
- 83', El Ghezouani M. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
- 90+7', Blanco D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Toluca
78.4% | Draw
14.4% | Tijuana
7.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tijuana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-11.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+6.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tijuana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Toluca - Tijuana Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.21 ↓
(1.45) |
6.54 ↑
(4.47) |
12.77 ↑
(6.83) |
5.8%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Toluca - Tijuana?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Tijuana will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1, 1st Half - Toluca (2.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5, 1st Half - Toluca (3.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toluca will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
- Toluca is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Tijuana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Toluca is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Vega A.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Tijuana: Boya F.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Castro N.
(Injury)
Helinho
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Tijuana: Mora G.
(Groin Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 38:26. (average 1.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:8. (average 2.5:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Tijuana?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tijuana won against Toluca?
Tijuana has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Tijuana were as follows:
22.10.2025
Tijuana
-
Toluca
0:0
10.01.2025
Tijuana
-
Toluca
2:4
14.09.2024
Toluca
-
Tijuana
4:0
25.02.2024
Toluca
-
Tijuana
2:0
15.09.2023
Tijuana
-
Toluca
2:1
Latest results of Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas ✔ | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 27:13 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24:14 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Toluca | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 19:8 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | UNAM Pumas | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 23:14 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Club America | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14:12 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Atlas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14:18 | -4 | 18 |
| 8 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18:15 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Necaxa | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16:17 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Juarez | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20:22 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Club Leon | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13:14 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19:17 | 2 | 14 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 20:22 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Puebla | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 13 |
| 16 | Queretaro | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10:17 | -7 | 12 |
| 17 | Mazatlan FC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 11 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15:31 | -16 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Guadalajara Chivas is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
