Result
1:1
16/08/2025 at 23:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 5
- Referee: Caceres V. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping |
 Mexico | Caliente TV, Canal 5, Fox Sports, Tubi TV, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | CBS Sports Network, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 0.78 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 71% | 29% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (499/558) | 72% (168/234) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 0.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 1.23 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (499/558) | 72% (168/234) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 69% (47/68) | 33% (16/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (135/170) | 58% (38/65) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (6/27) | 43% (3/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 0.41 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.23 | -0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, Ruvalcaba J. ⚽, Duarte R. (A),
- 23', Ruvalcaba J. 🟨,
- 24', Ruiz M. 🟨,
- 24', Martinez G. 🟨,
- 28', Trigos S. 🟨,
- 35', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 45', Caicedo J. ↓, Monroy P. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Castro N. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 67', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Paulinho (A),
- 68', Castro H. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 72', Ruvalcaba J. ↓, Quispe Cordova P. A. ↑,
- 79', Duarte R. 🟨,
- 82', Angulo J. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
- 89', Nathan Silva 🟨,
- 90+1', Carrasquilla A. ↓, Rivas U. ↑,
- 90+1', Ruiz M. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toluca
55.1% | Draw
25.2% | UNAM
19.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)UNAM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
Toluca - UNAM Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.7 ↓
(1.71) |
3.72 ↑
(3.72) |
4.71 ↑
(4.57) |
7%
(7.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Toluca - UNAM?
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toluca will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 1.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- There will not play in UNAM: Lopez S.
(Finger Injury)
- There are questionable in UNAM: Lara P.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:27. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against UNAM?
Toluca has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has UNAM won against Toluca?
UNAM has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - UNAM were as follows:
29.01.2025
UNAM
-
Toluca
1:1
05.10.2024
Toluca
-
UNAM
1:1
17.03.2024
Toluca
-
UNAM
3:0
18.08.2023
UNAM
-
Toluca
1:1
16.04.2023
UNAM
-
Toluca
3:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31:14 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Monterrey | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23:17 | 6 | 25 |
| 3 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23:11 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:12 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19:9 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Juarez | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19:11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Club Leon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Atl. San Luis | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16:18 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlas | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:26 | -8 | 10 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:20 | -9 | 9 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Puebla | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9:26 | -17 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
