UNAM vs Toluca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga MX
Result
2:3
03/03/2026 at 22:10 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Liga MX - Clausura - Round 9
  • Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoCanal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
usaUsaTUDN App, TUDN

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
2.693.15
Ball possession
39%61%
Total shots
1324
Shots on target
78
Big chances
44
Corner kicks
214
Passes
82% (268/327)87% (422/485)
Yellow cards
11
Expected goals (xG)
2.693.15
xG on target (xGOT)
1.612.89
Total shots
1324
Shots on target
78
Shots off target
48
Blocked shots
28
Shots inside the box
913
Shots outside the box
411
Hit the woodwork
01
Headed goals
01
Big chances
44
Corner kicks
214
Touches in opposition box
1739
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
03
Free kicks
48
Passes
82% (268/327)87% (422/485)
Long passes
43% (21/49)57% (30/53)
Passes in final third
61% (33/54)75% (118/157)
Crosses
40% (2/5)19% (6/32)
Expected assists (xA)
0.482.14
Throw ins
1623
Fouls
84
Tackles
60% (6/10)100% (6/6)
Duels won
2929
Clearances
3914
Interceptions
79
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
55
xGOT faced
2.891.61
Goals prevented
-0.11-0.39

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 29', 1 - 0, Morales R. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 37', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Perez P. (A),
  • 38', Angulo J. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 57', Carrillo J. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
  • 63', 2 - 1, Angulo A. ⚽, Antuna U. (A),
  • 63', Luan ↓, Helinho ↑,
  • 65', 🟨,
  • 73', 2 - 2, Barbosa D. ⚽, Helinho (A),
  • 75', Medina A. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
  • 77', Diaz J. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
  • 79', 2 - 3, Paulinho ⚽,
  • 82', Angulo J. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
  • 90+2', Vite P. ↓, Garza C. ↑,
  • 90+2', Azuaje A. ↓, Duarte R. ↑,

Chances of winning


UNAM
25.5%		Draw
26.2%		Toluca
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
21.3% 27% 51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1% 26.7% 52.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)
  • Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
    •

    UNAM - Toluca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.65 ↓
    (4.25)    		 3.57 ↑
    (3.35)    		 1.94 ↑
    (1.76)    		 7%
    (10.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for UNAM - Toluca?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. UNAM will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. UNAM (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Toluca (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - UNAM (1.79) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH +0.75 - UNAM (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - UNAM (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - UNAM (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - UNAM (2.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. UNAM (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Toluca (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 0.
    • At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
    • UNAM may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in UNAM: Macias J. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Toluca: Castro N. (Injury) Ruiz M. (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in UNAM: Trigos S. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Toluca: Simon S. (Injury) Vega A. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:23. (average 1.4:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 1.6:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between UNAM - Toluca were as follows:
    16.08.2025 Toluca - UNAM 1:1
    29.01.2025 UNAM - Toluca 1:1
    05.10.2024 Toluca - UNAM 1:1
    17.03.2024 Toluca - UNAM 3:0
    18.08.2023 UNAM - Toluca 1:1
    Latest results of UNAM
    27.02.2026 Tijuana - UNAM 1:1 ✺
    22.02.2026 UNAM - Monterrey 2:0 ✺
    13.02.2026 Puebla - UNAM 2:3 ✺
    10.02.2026 UNAM - San Diego 1:0 ✺
    07.02.2026 Atlas - UNAM 2:2 ✺
    Latest results of Toluca
    28.02.2026 Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara 2:0 ✺
    21.02.2026 Necaxa - Toluca 0:3 ✺
    13.02.2026 Toluca - Tijuana 1:0 ✺
    07.02.2026 Toluca - Cruz Azul 1:1 ✺
    30.01.2026 Puebla - Toluca 0:0 ✺
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    Clausura
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Guadalajara Chivas1190222:91327
    2Cruz Azul1182122:111126
    3Toluca1174018:61225
    4Pachuca1163214:9521
    5UNAM Pumas1155120:12820
    6Tigres UANL1152417:12517
    7Club America1152413:10317
    8Atlas1152414:16-217
    9Monterrey1142516:12414
    10Club Tijuana1126312:11112
    11Puebla113359:13-412
    12Atl. San Luis1132617:19-211
    13Juarez1032516:19-311
    14Necaxa1131711:16-510
    15Mazatlan FC1131713:22-910
    16Club Leon1131711:23-1210
    17Queretaro101458:16-87
    18Santos Laguna1112812:29-175

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)

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