Result
16/08/2025 at 23:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 5
- Referee: Caceres V. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping |
 Mexico | Caliente TV, Canal 5, Fox Sports, Tubi TV, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | CBS Sports Network, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Chances of winning
Toluca
54.9% | Draw
25.1% | UNAM
20% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)UNAM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Toluca - UNAM Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.71 ↓
(1.71) |
3.73 ↑
(3.72) |
4.63 ↑
(4.57) |
7.1%
(7.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Toluca - UNAM?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 1.
- At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
- Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- There will not play in UNAM: Lopez S.
(Finger Injury)
- There are questionable in UNAM: Lara P.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:27. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against UNAM?
Toluca has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has UNAM won against Toluca?
UNAM has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - UNAM were as follows:
29.01.2025
UNAM
-
Toluca
1:1
05.10.2024
Toluca
-
UNAM
1:1
17.03.2024
Toluca
-
UNAM
3:0
18.08.2023
UNAM
-
Toluca
1:1
16.04.2023
UNAM
-
Toluca
3:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Pachuca | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Toluca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12:7 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Club America | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Santos Laguna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Atl. San Luis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:7 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Club Leon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4:8 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Mazatlan FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Club Tijuana | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | UNAM Pumas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Atlas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:11 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Puebla | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4:14 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Juarez | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 2 |
| 18 | Queretaro | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:7 | -6 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
