Result
2:3
03/03/2026 at 22:10 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 9
- Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.69 | 3.15 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 39% | 61% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (268/327) | 87% (422/485) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.69 | 3.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 2.89 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 14 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 39 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (268/327) | 87% (422/485) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (21/49) | 57% (30/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (33/54) | 75% (118/157) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (2/5) | 19% (6/32) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 2.14 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (6/10) | 100% (6/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 29 | 29 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.89 | 1.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.11 | -0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 29', 1 - 0, Morales R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 37', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Perez P. (A),
- 38', Angulo J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 57', Carrillo J. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
- 63', 2 - 1, Angulo A. ⚽, Antuna U. (A),
- 63', Luan ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 65', 🟨,
- 73', 2 - 2, Barbosa D. ⚽, Helinho (A),
- 75', Medina A. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
- 77', Diaz J. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
- 79', 2 - 3, Paulinho ⚽,
- 82', Angulo J. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
- 90+2', Vite P. ↓, Garza C. ↑,
- 90+2', Azuaje A. ↓, Duarte R. ↑,
Chances of winning
UNAM
25.5% | Draw
26.2% | Toluca
48.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
UNAM - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.65 ↓
(4.25) |
3.57 ↑
(3.35) |
1.94 ↑
(1.76) |
7%
(10.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for UNAM - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. UNAM will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - UNAM (1.79) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +0.75 - UNAM (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +1 - UNAM (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - UNAM (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - UNAM (2.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (2 of 3 users predict this - 66.67%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Toluca (votes: 2 - 15.4%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 0.
- At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
- UNAM may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in UNAM: Macias J.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Toluca: Castro N.
(Injury)
Ruiz M.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in UNAM: Trigos S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Simon S.
(Injury)
Vega A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:23. (average 1.4:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 1.6:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has UNAM won against Toluca?
UNAM has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against UNAM?
Toluca has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between UNAM - Toluca were as follows:
16.08.2025
Toluca
-
UNAM
1:1
29.01.2025
UNAM
-
Toluca
1:1
05.10.2024
Toluca
-
UNAM
1:1
17.03.2024
Toluca
-
UNAM
3:0
18.08.2023
UNAM
-
Toluca
1:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | UNAM Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 34:17 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 31:18 | 13 | 33 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25:19 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28:16 | 12 | 30 |
| 6 | Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28:18 | 10 | 25 |
| 8 | Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:17 | 3 | 25 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 23 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 22:32 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 26:32 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22:24 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 24:27 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22:37 | -15 | 15 |
| 17 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:26 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20:38 | -18 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
