Tomas Machac vs Sho Shimabukuro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis ATP Tokyo Tomas Machac - Sho Shimabukuro
Result
0:2
25/09/2025 at 00:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Match Stats

Aces
65
Double Faults
30
1st Serve Percentage
64%63%
1st Serve Points Won
64% (34/53)71% (29/41)
2nd Serve Points Won
53% (16/30)75% (18/24)
Break Points Saved
83% (10/12)0% (0/1)
1st Return Points Won
29% (12/41)38% (20/53)
2nd Return Points Won
25% (6/24)47% (14/30)
Break Points Converted
100% (1/1)17% (2/12)
Service Points Won
60% (50/83)73% (47/64)
Return Points Won
27% (17/64)40% (33/83)
Total Points Won
46% (67/147)54% (80/147)
Last 10 Balls
37
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
80% (8/10)91% (10/11)
Return Games Won
9% (1/11)20% (2/10)
Total Games Won
43% (9/21)57% (12/21)

Chances of winning


Tomas Machac
73.3%
Sho Shimabukuro
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
69.2% 30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.2% 29.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tomas Machac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)
  • Sho Shimabukuro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (+3.1%)
  • Tomas Machac - Sho Shimabukuro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.3
    (1.32)

    3.59
    (2.97)
    4.7%
    (9.4%)
    Preview Facts
    • Machac is ranked ATP: 22. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 271.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Shimabukuro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Machac is a strong favorite.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Tomas Machac
    Latest results of Sho Shimabukuro
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Baez S.
    2Bergs Z.Tabilo A.
    3Thompson J.Nakashima B.
    4Fucsovics M. (Q)Tiafoe F. (8)2 : 1
    5Ruud C. (4)Mochizuki S. (WC)
    6Munar J.Berrettini M.0 : 2
    7Dzumhur D.Vukic A. (Q)1 : 2
    8Altmaier D.Shapovalov D. (7)2 : 0
    9Humbert U. (6)Brooksby J. (PR)0 : 2
    10Nishioka Y. (WC)Darderi L.0 : 2
    11Michelsen A.Quinn E. (Q)
    12Medjedovic H.Rune H. (3)
    13Machac T. (5)Shimabukuro S. (Q)0 : 2
    14Giron M.Korda S.1 : 2
    15Watanuki Y. (WC)Borges N.1 : 2
    16Diallo G.Fritz T. (2)1 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3Fucsovics M.
    3TBD #5Berrettini M.
    4Vukic A.Altmaier D.
    5Brooksby J.Darderi L.
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7Shimabukuro S.Korda S.
    8Borges N.Fritz T. (2)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2