Tommy Paul vs Alex De Minaur: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

13/05/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/8-finals

Match Stats


Aces
0	1
Double Faults
1	3
1st Serve Percentage
58%	57%
1st Serve Points Won
63% (27/43)	56% (23/41)
2nd Serve Points Won
61% (19/31)	48% (15/31)
Break Points Saved
80% (8/10)	43% (3/7)
1st Return Points Won
44% (18/41)	37% (16/43)
2nd Return Points Won
52% (16/31)	39% (12/31)
Break Points Converted
57% (4/7)	20% (2/10)
Winners
9	10
Unforced Errors
33	49
Net Points Won
69% (9/13)	90% (9/10)
Service Points Won
62% (46/74)	53% (38/72)
Return Points Won
47% (34/72)	38% (28/74)
Total Points Won
55% (80/146)	45% (66/146)
Last 10 Balls
5	5
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
82% (9/11)	60% (6/10)
Return Games Won
40% (4/10)	18% (2/11)
Total Games Won
62% (13/21)	38% (8/21)

Chances of winning

Tommy Paul
38%

Alex De Minaur
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.44)		1.54 ↓ (1.58)	4.8% (4.5%)

What is the prediction for Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur?

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 9 - 50%). De Minaur will win (votes: 9 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 26.9% – 73.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Paul is ranked ATP: 12. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 8.
At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.
De Minaur is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
We predict that De Minaur will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paul won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.6:2).

How many head-to-head matches has Tommy Paul won against Alex De Minaur?

Tommy Paul has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alex De Minaur won against Tommy Paul?

Alex De Minaur has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur were as follows:

03.08.2023 Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul 2:1

04.03.2023 Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur 1:2

Latest results of Tommy Paul

12.05.2025 Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac 2:1 ✺

10.05.2025 Tommy Paul - Roberto Bautista-Agut 2:0 ✺

30.04.2025 Jack Draper - Tommy Paul 2:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Karen Khachanov - Tommy Paul 1:2 ✺

26.04.2025 Joao Fonseca - Tommy Paul 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Alex De Minaur

12.05.2025 Hugo Dellien - Alex De Minaur 0:2 ✺

10.05.2025 Luca Nardi - Alex De Minaur 0:2 ✺

30.04.2025 Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti 0:2 ✺

29.04.2025 Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov 2:0 ✺

26.04.2025 Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Sonego 2:0 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bye
2	Navone M.	Cina F. (WC)	2 : 0
3	De Jong J. (LL)	Shevchenko A. (Q)	2 : 0
4	Bye	Davidovich Fokina A. (25)
5	Cerundolo F. (17)	Bye
6	Gaston H.	Jarry N.	0 : 2
7	Carballes Baena R. (RET.)	Ofner S. (Q)	0 : 1
8	Bye	Tiafoe F. (15)
9	Shelton B. (12)	Bye
10	Barrios Vera T. (Q)	Munar J.	1 : 2
11	Vukic A.	Moreno De Alboran N. (Q)	2 : 0
12	Bye	Korda S. (22)
13	Berrettini M. (29)	Bye
14	Fearnley J.	Fognini F. (WC)	2 : 0
15	Bublik A.	Safiullin R.	2 : 0
16	Bye	Ruud C. (6)
17	Fritz T. (4)	Bye
18	Diallo G.	Giron M.	1 : 2
19	Bellucci M.	Martinez P.	0 : 2
20	Bye	Hurkacz H. (30)
21	Mensik J. (20)	Bye
22	Rinderknech A.	Gigante M. (WC)	0 : 2
23	Marozsan F.	Fonseca J.	2 : 0
24	Bye	Rublev A. (16)
25	Paul T. (11)	Bye
26	Arnaldi M.	Bautista-Agut R.	0 : 2
27	Tien L.	Opelka R. (PR)	2 : 0
28	Bye	Machac T. (19)
29	Dellien H. (LL)	Bye
30	Borges N.	Seyboth Wild T. (Q)	1 : 2
31	Nardi L. (WC)	Cobolli F.	2 : 0
32	Bye	De Minaur A. (7)
33	Draper J. (5)	Bye
34	Bu Y.	Darderi L.	0 : 2
35	Kopriva V. (Q)	Halys Q.	2 : 0
36	Bye	Baez S. (32)
37	Humbert U. (21)	Bye
38	Hijikata R.	Moutet C.	1 : 2
39	Altmaier D.	Comesana F.	0 : 2
40	Bye	Rune H. (9)
41	Dimitrov G. (14)	Bye
42	Passaro F. (WC)	Tseng C. H. (Q)	2 : 1
43	Sonego L.	Burruchaga R. A. (Q)	0 : 2
44	Bye	Khachanov K. (23)
45	Michelsen A. (31)	Bye
46	Djere L.	Etcheverry T. M.	2 : 0
47	Nishioka Y.	Lajovic D. (Q)	0 : 2
48	Bye	Alcaraz C. (3)
49	Musetti L. (8)	Bye
50	Medjedovic H.	Virtanen O. (Q)	0 : 2
51	Thompson J.	Mpetshi Perricard G.	2 : 1
52	Bye	Nakashima B. (28)
53	Popyrin A. (24)	Bye
54	Taberner C. (Q)	Kovacevic A.	2 : 1
55	O'Connell C.	Norrie C. (LL)	0 : 2
56	Bye	Medvedev D. (10)
57	Fils A. (13)	Bye
58	Griekspoor T.	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 1
59	Lehecka J.	Muller A.	1 : 2
60	Bye	Tsitsipas S. (18)
61	Shapovalov D. (27)	Bye
62	Gaubas V. (Q)	Dzumhur D.	2 : 1
63	Ugo Carabelli C.	Carreno-Busta P. (LL)	2 : 1
64	Bye	Zverev A. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Navone M.	2 : 0
2	De Jong J.	Davidovich Fokina A. (25)	2 : 0
3	Cerundolo F. (17)	Jarry N.	2 : 0
4	Ofner S.	Tiafoe F. (15)	2 : 1
5	Shelton B. (12)	Munar J.	0 : 2
6	Vukic A.	Korda S. (22)	0 : 2
7	Berrettini M. (29)	Fearnley J.	2 : 0
8	Bublik A.	Ruud C. (6)	1 : 2
9	Fritz T. (4)	Giron M.	0 : 2
10	Martinez P.	Hurkacz H. (30)	0 : 2
11	Mensik J. (20)	Gigante M.	2 : 0
12	Marozsan F.	Rublev A. (16)	2 : 1
13	Paul T. (11)	Bautista-Agut R.	2 : 0
14	Tien L.	Machac T. (19)	0 : 2
15	Dellien H.	Seyboth Wild T.	2 : 1
16	Nardi L.	De Minaur A. (7)	0 : 2
17	Draper J. (5)	Darderi L.	2 : 0
18	Kopriva V.	Baez S. (32)	2 : 1
19	Humbert U. (RET.) (21)	Moutet C.	0 : 1
20	Comesana F.	Rune H. (9)	1 : 2
21	Dimitrov G. (14)	Passaro F.	0 : 2
22	Burruchaga R. A.	Khachanov K. (23)	1 : 2
23	Michelsen A. (31)	Djere L.	0 : 2
24	Lajovic D.	Alcaraz C. (3)	0 : 2
25	Musetti L. (8)	Virtanen O.	2 : 0
26	Thompson J.	Nakashima B. (WO.) (28)
27	Popyrin A. (24)	Taberner C.	2 : 0
28	Norrie C.	Medvedev D. (10)	0 : 2
29	Fils A. (13)	Griekspoor T.	2 : 0
30	Muller A.	Tsitsipas S. (18)	0 : 2
31	Shapovalov D. (27)	Gaubas V.	0 : 2
32	Ugo Carabelli C.	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	De Jong J.	2 : 0
2	Cerundolo F. (17)	Ofner S.	2 : 0
3	Munar J.	Korda S. (22)	2 : 0
4	Berrettini M. (RET.) (29)	Ruud C. (6)	0 : 1
5	Giron M.	Hurkacz H. (30)	1 : 2
6	Mensik J. (20)	Marozsan F.	2 : 0
7	Paul T. (11)	Machac T. (19)	2 : 1
8	Dellien H.	De Minaur A. (7)	0 : 2
9	Draper J. (5)	Kopriva V.	2 : 0
10	Moutet C.	Rune H. (9)	2 : 1
11	Passaro F.	Khachanov K. (23)	0 : 2
12	Djere L.	Alcaraz C. (3)	0 : 2
13	Musetti L. (8)	Nakashima B. (28)	2 : 0
14	Popyrin A. (24)	Medvedev D. (10)	0 : 2
15	Fils A. (13)	Tsitsipas S. (18)	2 : 1
16	Gaubas V.	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Cerundolo F. (17)	2 : 0
2	Munar J.	Ruud C. (6)	0 : 2
3	Hurkacz H. (30)	Mensik J. (20)	2 : 1
4	Paul T. (11)	De Minaur A. (7)	2 : 0
5	Draper J. (5)	Moutet C.	2 : 1
6	Khachanov K. (23)	Alcaraz C. (3)	1 : 2
7	Musetti L. (8)	Medvedev D. (10)	2 : 0
8	Fils A. (13)	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Ruud C. (6)	2 : 0
2	Hurkacz H. (30)	Paul T. (11)	0 : 2
3	Draper J. (5)	Alcaraz C. (3)	0 : 2
4	Musetti L. (8)	Zverev A. (2)	2 : 0

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Paul T. (11)	2 : 1
2	Alcaraz C. (3)	Musetti L. (8)	2 : 0

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (3)

0 : 2

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