Result
3:4 penalties
10/10/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.87 | 3.41 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 20 | 27 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 15% (3/20) | 11.11% (3/27) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 10 | 22 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 24 | 17 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 88.89% (24/27) | 85% (17/20) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 35 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 14.29% (1/7) | 0% (0/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (2/2) | 85.71% (6/7) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 27 | 29 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 48.21 | 51.79 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 1)
- 03:28, Rafkin R. (2 min),
- 08:48, Elo S. (2 min),
- 17:31, 0 - 1, Saarela A. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Lauridsen O. (A2)
- 19:00, Rafkin R. (5 min),
- 2nd Period (3 - 0)
- 05:07, 1 - 1, Curry P. (G), Klemetti A. (A),
- 11:00, (2 min),
- 12:07, 2 - 1, Curry P. (G), Rissanen J. (A), Lappalainen L. (A2)
- 13:38, 3 - 1, Kanak L. (G), Rasanen I. (A), Klemetti A. (A2)
- 3rd Period (0 - 2)
- 05:01, Maenpaa J. (2 min),
- 13:39, 3 - 2, Maatta J. (G), Koivu A. (A), Pikkarainen K. (A2)
- 14:05, 3 - 3, Pakkila E. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
- 14:31, Maatta J. (2 min),
- 18:31, Curry P. (2 min),
- 18:31, Wernblom L. (2 min),
- Overtime (0 - 0)
- Penalties (0 - 1)
- 1, Borchardt C. (Penalty Shot),
- 1, Pikkarainen K. (Penalty Shot),
- 2, Curry P. (Penalty Shot),
- 2, Munkki V. (Penalty Shot),
- 3, Hartikainen T. (Penalty Shot),
Chances of winning
KalPa
48.8% | Draw
23.1% | TPS
28.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+3.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
KalPa - TPS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.94 ↑
(1.85) |
4.06 ↑
(4.03) |
3.36 ↓
(3.56) |
6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 4.
- KalPa is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- TPS's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- KalPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- KalPa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- We predict that KalPa will win today's game, with odds of 1.99.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 55:39. (average 2.8:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, KalPa won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:18. (average 2.8:2).
How many head-to-head matches has KalPa won against TPS?
KalPa has won 9 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against KalPa?
TPS has won 5 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between KalPa - TPS were as follows:
20.09.2025
TPS
-
KalPa
0:3
12.03.2025
KalPa
-
TPS
1:0
15.01.2025
TPS
-
KalPa
3:2
20.11.2024
TPS
-
KalPa
1:3
21.09.2024
KalPa
-
TPS
5:0
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Assat | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 39:23 | 24 |
| 2 | JYP | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 47:36 | 24 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 44:35 | 23 |
| 4 | KooKoo | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 46:41 | 22 |
| 5 | Tappara | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 39:28 | 21 |
| 6 | Kiekko-Espoo | 13 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 36:35 | 21 |
| 7 | Lukko | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 35:34 | 20 |
| 8 | Jukurit | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 34:39 | 20 |
| 9 | KalPa | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33:34 | 19 |
| 10 | TPS Turku | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 29:28 | 18 |
| 11 | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 32:34 | 18 |
| 12 | Karpat | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 45:45 | 16 |
| 13 | Vaasan Sport | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 34:40 | 14 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23:34 | 13 |
| 15 | Ilves | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 31:45 | 12 |
| 16 | IFK Helsinki | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 25:41 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Liiga (Play Out: )
