Result
1:4
09/01/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.46 | 2.98 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 20 | 28 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 5% (1/20) | 14.29% (4/28) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 85.71% (24/28) | 95% (19/20) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/2) | 50% (2/4) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 50% (2/4) | 100% (2/2) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 26 | 19 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 57.78 | 42.22 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 00:21, Salminen S. (2 min),
- 01:22, 0 - 1, Savinainen V. (G), Binner A. (A), Yliniemi S. (A2)
- 15:42, 1 - 1, Nikkanen H. (G), Kivenmaki O. (A), Trejbal O. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 1)
- 10:18, Soderlund T. (2 min),
- 14:43, Hokkanen O. (2 min),
- 17:09, Airola S. (2 min),
- 17:14, 1 - 2, Saarela A. (G), Binner A. (A), Yliniemi S. (A2)
- 18:39, (2 min),
- 3rd Period (0 - 2)
- 10:19, Landen A. (2 min),
- 10:27, 1 - 3, Wernblom L. (G),
- 17:51, 1 - 4, Saarela A. (G), Pakkila E. (A), Tuhkala A. (A2)
Chances of winning
SaiPa
51.7% | Draw
22.2% | TPS
26.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SaiPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
SaiPa - TPS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.83 ↑
(1.81) |
4.1 ↓
(4.34) |
3.53 ↓
(3.63) |
7.4%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for SaiPa - TPS?
Users Predictions:
SaiPa will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): SaiPa will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 5.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- TPS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, SaiPa is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 53:58. (average 2.7:2.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, SaiPa won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:23. (average 3:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has SaiPa won against TPS?
SaiPa has won 11 of their last 21 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against SaiPa?
TPS has won 9 of their last 21 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between SaiPa - TPS were as follows:
26.11.2025
SaiPa
-
TPS
6:1
01.11.2025
TPS
-
SaiPa
1:6
01.08.2025
TPS
-
SaiPa
0:2
24.03.2025
SaiPa
-
TPS
3:2
22.03.2025
TPS
-
SaiPa
1:2
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
