Result
1:3
25/02/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.15 | 2.33 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 4.17% (1/24) | 15.79% (3/19) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 16 | 23 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 88.89% (16/18) | 95.83% (23/24) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/2) | 0% (0/3) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (3/3) | 100% (2/2) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 21 | 27 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 43.75 | 56.25 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 0)
- 07:01, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (0 - 2)
- 07:34, 0 - 1, Kuusla E. (G), Kalapudas A. (A),
- 10:43, 0 - 2, Niinisaari S. (G), Nikkanen H. (A), Kivenmaki O. (A2)
- 18:45, Rafkin R. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 1)
- 02:15, Pikkarainen K. (2 min),
- 04:40, Klintrup E. (2 min),
- 05:59, Heikkila J. (2 min),
- 10:00, 1 - 2, Maatta J. (G), Wernblom L. (A), Landen A. (A2)
- 19:14, 1 - 3, Nikkanen H. (G), Salomaki M. (A),
Chances of winning
TPS
32.4% | Draw
23.4% | SaiPa
44.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)SaiPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
TPS - SaiPa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.88 ↓
(3.05) |
3.94 ↓
(3.95) |
2.12 ↑
(2.04) |
7.3%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.
- TPS has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- SaiPa is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- SaiPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- SaiPa might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 58:51. (average 2.9:2.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:20. (average 3.4:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against SaiPa?
TPS has won 10 of their last 22 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has SaiPa won against TPS?
SaiPa has won 11 of their last 22 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between TPS - SaiPa were as follows:
09.01.2026
SaiPa
-
TPS
1:4
26.11.2025
SaiPa
-
TPS
6:1
01.11.2025
TPS
-
SaiPa
1:6
01.08.2025
TPS
-
SaiPa
0:2
24.03.2025
SaiPa
-
TPS
3:2
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
