Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
3:1
12/12/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 14
  • Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, New World Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
azerbaijanAzerbaijanSetanta Sports 2
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Xsports
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaESPN 5
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
europeEuropeSetanta Sports 2 Baltic
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free, New World TV
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
hungaryHungaryArena 4
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 1
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports 2
kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanSetanta Sports 2
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 2
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaRUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 3
pakistanPakistanTapmad
papua-new-guineaPapua-new-guineaTVWan Sports
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 1
portugalPortugalDAZN 1, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Premium
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 2
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 2
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomBBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 2
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.450.59
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
129
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
46
Passes
68% (212/310)84% (466/554)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
1.450.59
xG on target (xGOT)
2.141.52
Total shots
129
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
54
Blocked Shots
12
Shots inside the Box
94
Shots outside the Box
35
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
46
Touches in opposition box
2217
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
87
Passes
68% (212/310)84% (466/554)
Long passes
33% (25/75)44% (24/55)
Passes in final third
54% (52/96)68% (93/136)
Crosses
28% (5/18)33% (5/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.920.41
Throw-ins
2710
Fouls
78
Tackles
47% (17/36)71% (10/14)
Duels won
5852
Clearances
3635
Interceptions
95
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
1.522.14
Goals prevented
0.52-0.86

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 37', Haberer J. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 50', Raum D. 🟨,
  • 55', Doekhi D. 🟨,
  • 57', 1 - 0, Burke O. ⚽, Jeong Woo-Yeong (A),
  • 58', Bakayoko J. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
  • 59', Haberer J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
  • 60', 1 - 1, Gomis T. ⚽, Harder C. (A),
  • 64', 2 - 1, Ansah I. ⚽, Trimmel C. (A),
  • 67', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
  • 68', Burke O. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
  • 72', Harder C. 🟨,
  • 81', Nedeljkovic K. ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,
  • 85', Kohn D. ↓, Nsoki S. ↑,
  • 85', Ansah I. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
  • 90+1', Seiwald N. ↓, Werner T. ↑,
  • 90+3', 3 - 1, Skarke T. ⚽, Ilic A. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Union Berlin
30.8%		Draw
28.1%		RB Leipzig
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
27.3% 26.3% 46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4% 25.5% 47.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and RB Leipzig might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that RB Leipzig could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Union Berlin - RB Leipzig Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.11 ↓
    (3.48)    		 3.39 ↓
    (3.62)    		 2.32 ↑
    (2.05)    		 4.8%
    (5.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Union Berlin - RB Leipzig?
  • Users Predictions: 102 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 9 - 8.8%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 80 - 78.4%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 12.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 70.4% – 86.4%. The data is statistically significant.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.75 - RB Leipzig (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 2nd Half - RB Leipzig (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - RB Leipzig (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Union Berlin (1.62) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - RB Leipzig (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - RB Leipzig (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): RB Leipzig will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 48 high ROI users predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 3 - 6.3%). RB Leipzig (votes: 42 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 6.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1.
    • Union Berlin is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • RB Leipzig is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • RB Leipzig is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Injury) Markgraf A. (Leg Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in RB Leipzig: Baku R. (Ankle Injury) Bitshiabu E. (Muscle Injury) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kampl K. (Personal Reasons) Nusa A. (Ankle Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Romulo Cardoso (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:28. (average 1:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Union Berlin - RB Leipzig were as follows:
    01.02.2025 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 0:0
    14.09.2024 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 0:0
    04.02.2024 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 2:0
    03.09.2023 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 0:3
    11.02.2023 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 1:2
    Latest results of Union Berlin
    06.12.2025 Wolfsburg - Union Berlin 3:1 ✺
    03.12.2025 Union Berlin - Bayern Munich 2:3 ✺
    29.11.2025 Union Berlin - Heidenheim 1:2 ✺
    23.11.2025 St. Pauli - Union Berlin 0:1 ✺
    08.11.2025 Union Berlin - Bayern Munich 2:2 ✺
    Latest results of RB Leipzig
    06.12.2025 RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0 ✺
    02.12.2025 RB Leipzig - Magdeburg 3:1 ✺
    28.11.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - RB Leipzig 0:0 ✺
    23.11.2025 RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen 2:0 ✺
    08.11.2025 Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig 3:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich23193185:216460
    2Dortmund23157149:222752
    3Hoffenheim23144549:301946
    4Stuttgart23134644:321243
    5RB Leipzig23125644:321241
    6Bayer Leverkusen22123743:281539
    7Freiburg2396834:37-333
    8Eintracht Frankfurt2387846:49-331
    9Union Berlin2377929:37-828
    10Augsburg23841128:41-1328
    11Hamburger SV2268825:32-726
    12FC Koln23661133:39-624
    13Mainz23571126:38-1222
    14B. Monchengladbach23571126:39-1322
    15Wolfsburg23551333:49-1620
    16St. Pauli23551322:40-1820
    17Werder Bremen23471223:44-2119
    18Heidenheim23351522:51-2914

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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