St. Pauli vs Union Berlin – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
0:1
23/11/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 11
  • Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena, Startimes Sports Focus
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 3
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
asiaAsiaMBC Action
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaESPN 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
europeEuropeGo3 Sport 3 Baltic
fijiFijiSky Pacific
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 3
italyItalySky Sport MIX
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 1
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalDAZN 3, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 2
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.640.41
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
128
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
82
Passes
76% (432/567)74% (301/405)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
0.640.41
xG on target (xGOT)
0.451.23
Total shots
128
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
77
Shots outside the Box
51
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
82
Touches in opposition box
2114
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
12
Free Kicks
810
Passes
76% (432/567)74% (301/405)
Long passes
30% (19/63)31% (24/77)
Passes in final third
59% (104/176)36% (29/80)
Crosses
15% (4/27)50% (4/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.080.52
Throw-ins
2222
Fouls
108
Tackles
73% (16/22)77% (10/13)
Duels won
6161
Clearances
2350
Interceptions
106
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
1.230.45
Goals prevented
0.230.45

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 38', Fujita J. 🟨,
  • 44', 0 - 1, Khedira R. ⚽, Ilic A. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Khedira R. 🟨,
  • 64', Hountondji A. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
  • 64', Irvine J. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
  • 65', Ilic A. ↓, Kral A. ↑,
  • 72', Burke O. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
  • 73', Rothe T. ↓, Kohn D. ↑,
  • 73', Kemlein A. ↓, Haberer J. ↑,
  • 73', Pyrka A. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
  • 82', Ansah I. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
  • 87', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,

Chances of winning


St. Pauli
37.2%		Draw
30.5%		Union Berlin
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.8% 28.6% 30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8% 29.3% 30%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
  • Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
    •

    St. Pauli - Union Berlin Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.57 ↑
    (2.34)    		 3.21 ↓
    (3.34)    		 3.01 ↓
    (3.11)    		 3.2%
    (4.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Union Berlin?
  • Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 7 - 24.1%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 15 - 51.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 24.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 33.5% – 69.9%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2 - under (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Union Berlin (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Union Berlin (2.00) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Union Berlin (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Union Berlin (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Union Berlin will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 14 high ROI users predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Union Berlin (votes: 12 - 85.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 12).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.
    • Recent form of St. Pauli has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Union Berlin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Union Berlin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Union Berlin has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Dzwigala A. (Muscle Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Saliakas M. (Groin Injury) Schmitz M. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Injury) Juranovic J. (Injury) Markgraf A. (Leg Injury) Schafer A. (Knock) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:33. (average 1.4:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.8:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Union Berlin were as follows:
    26.01.2025 St. Pauli - Union Berlin 3:0
    30.08.2024 Union Berlin - St. Pauli 1:0
    21.12.2022 Union Berlin - St. Pauli 3:2
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    09.11.2025 Freiburg - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺
    01.11.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:4 ✺
    28.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 3:2 ✺
    25.10.2025 Eintracht Frankfurt - St. Pauli 2:0 ✺
    19.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 0:3 ✺
    Latest results of Union Berlin
    08.11.2025 Union Berlin - Bayern Munich 2:2 ✺
    01.11.2025 Union Berlin - Freiburg 0:0 ✺
    29.10.2025 Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld 2:1 ✺
    24.10.2025 Werder Bremen - Union Berlin 1:0 ✺
    17.10.2025 Union Berlin - Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich24203188:236563
    2Dortmund24157251:252652
    3Hoffenheim24144649:311846
    4Stuttgart24144648:321646
    5RB Leipzig24135646:331344
    6Bayer Leverkusen23124744:291540
    7Eintracht Frankfurt2497848:49-134
    8Freiburg2496934:39-533
    9Augsburg24941130:41-1131
    10Union Berlin24771029:38-928
    11Hamburger SV2368926:34-826
    12B. Monchengladbach24671127:39-1225
    13FC Koln24661233:41-824
    14Mainz24581127:39-1223
    15St. Pauli24651323:40-1723
    16Werder Bremen24571225:44-1922
    17Wolfsburg24551433:53-2020
    18Heidenheim24351622:53-3114

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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