Result
1:2
21/09/2025 at 17:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Clausura - Round 12
- Referee: Ortiz J. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 1.34 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (251/310) | 83% (345/418) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 1.34 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.77 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (251/310) | 83% (345/418) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (23/47) | 51% (22/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (49/79) | 78% (90/116) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (4/12) | 35% (6/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.73 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 58% (7/12) | 73% (11/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.77 | 0.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.23 | -0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 17', Morelos A. 🟨,
- 26', Ortiz D. 🟨,
- 31', Ortiz D. ↓, Murillo D. ↑,
- 32', Marquez R. 🟨,
- 40', Congo J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 51', Cardona E. 🟨,
- 52', 0 - 1, Cardona E. ⚽, Morelos A. (A),
- 55', Campuzano J. 🟨,
- 61', 1 - 1, Marquez R. ⚽, Sarmiento J. (A),
- 64', Moreno M. ↓, Rengifo J. ↑,
- 64', Congo J. ↓, Giraldo J. ↑,
- 79', Sarmiento A. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
- 82', Iguaran C. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
- 82', Sarmiento J. ↓, Contreras J. ↑,
- 84', Bauza J. ↓, Arce B. ↑,
- 86', Rengifo J. 🟨,
- 90+2', 1 - 2, Roman A. ⚽, Rengifo J. (A),
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/3mwwwz67
Chances of winning
Unión Magdalena
15.6% | Draw
25.4% | Atlético Nacional
59% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.96 ↑
(5.62) |
3.69 ↑
(3.61) |
1.6 ↓
(1.64) |
6.6%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Nacional: 45% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Atlético Nacional will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Unión Magdalena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Atlético Nacional is considered a favorite.
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Unión Magdalena won against Atlético Nacional?
Unión Magdalena has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Unión Magdalena?
Atlético Nacional has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
05.04.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Unión Magdalena
1:0
07.10.2023
Unión Magdalena
-
Atlético Nacional
2:1
Latest results of Unión Magdalena
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional ✔ | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 30:11 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:17 | 4 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24:13 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Once Caldas | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 26:19 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Junior | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | America De Cali | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19:12 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Dep. Cali | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17:13 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Aguilas | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 22 |
| 9 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18:20 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25:17 | 8 | 21 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 20 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:14 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Santa Fe | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:19 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Ind. Medellin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19:19 | 0 | 17 |
| 15 | Fortaleza | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21:27 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Alianza | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10:22 | -12 | 15 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14:28 | -14 | 14 |
| 19 | Chico | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11:21 | -10 | 11 |
| 20 | Pereira | 15 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 14:29 | -15 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
