Result
2:3
11/04/2026 at 21:20 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 16
- Referee: Roldan W. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Belarus | Sport TV |
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 1.89 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (247/286) | 89% (383/429) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 1.89 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.36 | 2.24 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 5 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (247/286) | 89% (383/429) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (30/45) | 59% (33/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (40/58) | 67% (59/88) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (2/13) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.21 | 1.16 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (5/8) | 100% (9/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 28 | 19 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.24 | 0.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.24 | -1.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 3', 1 - 0, Catano D. ⚽,
- 7', 1 - 1, Sarmiento A. ⚽,
- 10', 1 - 2, Rengifo J. ⚽,
- 26', 2 - 2, Londono D. ⚽, Serna A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 57', Catano D. ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
- 64', Palacios H. ↓, Loboa H. ↑,
- 66', Uribe M. ↓, Arango C. ↑,
- 67', Sarmiento A. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
- 78', Cardona E. 🟨,
- 79', Serna A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
- 79', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Davila A. ↑,
- 79', Chaverra F. ↓, Montano J. ↑,
- 79', Bello E. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
- 82', Tesillo W. 🟨,
- 86', Loboa H. 🟨,
- 88', Morelos A. ↓, Rosa J. ↑,
- 90+3', 2 - 3, Ortiz J. (Own goal),
Chances of winning
Independiente Medellín
32.4% | Draw
27.6% | Atlético Nacional
40% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.92 ↑
(2.72) |
3.38 ↑
(3.34) |
2.34 ↓
(2.43) |
6.6%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- First leg result: 0-0. Aggregate: 0-1. 2nd leg.
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).
- Atlético Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 0.
- Ind Medellín has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Atlético Nacional is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:30. (average 1.5:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.5:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Atlético Nacional?
Independiente Medellín has won 6 of their last 19 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Independiente Medellín?
Atlético Nacional has won 5 of their last 19 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
17.12.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Atlético Nacional
0:1
13.12.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Independiente Medellín
0:0
04.12.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Independiente Medellín
2:1
23.11.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Atlético Nacional
0:0
26.10.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Independiente Medellín
5:2
Latest results of Independiente Medellín
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional ✔ | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 35:14 | 21 | 40 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto ✔ | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26:21 | 5 | 34 |
| 3 | Junior ✔ | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 27:21 | 6 | 32 |
| 4 | Deportes Tolima ✔ | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 26:16 | 10 | 30 |
| 5 | America De Cali ✔ | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24:15 | 9 | 30 |
| 6 | Once Caldas ✔ | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30:22 | 8 | 30 |
| 7 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 25:23 | 2 | 28 |
| 8 | Santa Fe | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 26:21 | 5 | 26 |
| 9 | Dep. Cali | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 19:15 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Ind. Medellin | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 25:22 | 3 | 26 |
| 11 | Millonarios | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 29:21 | 8 | 25 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 25:18 | 7 | 23 |
| 13 | Aguilas | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 18 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 17:17 | 0 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 20:26 | -6 | 19 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 22:33 | -11 | 16 |
| 17 | Alianza | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11:25 | -14 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 18:33 | -15 | 15 |
| 19 | Chico | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 12:32 | -20 | 14 |
| 20 | Pereira | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 15:31 | -16 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
Dep. Pasto is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
Junior is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
Deportes Tolima is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
America De Cali is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
Once Caldas is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
