Universidad Católica del Ecuador vs Emelec – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Ecuadorian Liga Pro Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec
Result
1:1
25/06/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Pro - Round 16
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.092.38
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
1711
Shots on target
43
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
51
Passes
89% (372/418)86% (295/342)
Yellow Cards
20
Red Cards
20
Expected Goals (xG)
1.092.38
xG on target (xGOT)
0.601.46
Total shots
1711
Shots on target
43
Shots off target
66
Blocked Shots
72
Shots inside the Box
88
Shots outside the Box
103
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
51
Touches in opposition box
2118
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
139
Passes
89% (372/418)86% (295/342)
Long passes
68% (23/34)64% (32/50)
Passes in final third
78% (88/113)77% (61/79)
Crosses
25% (5/20)27% (4/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.690.48
Throw-ins
1710
Fouls
913
Tackles
50% (6/12)76% (19/25)
Duels won
3947
Clearances
721
Interceptions
95
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
1.460.60
Goals prevented
0.40-0.40

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 27', 0 - 1, Cueva C. (Pen),
  • 35', Canga L. 🟥,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 57', Cuero Palacio J. R. , Castelli F. ,
  • 59', Clavijo E. , Anangono G. ,
  • 68', Anangono G. 🟨,
  • 71', Cacciabue J. , Troya R. ,
  • 71', Valencia E. , Yanez Zambrano S. ,
  • 71', Romero Padilla D. A. , Mejia E. ,
  • 75', Cueva C. , Barco A. ,
  • 75', Ayovi J. , Quinonez J. ,
  • 81', Yanez Zambrano S. 🟥,
  • 84', Moreno L. , Draper A. ,
  • 88', Jhon Chancellor 🟨,
  • 90+1', Cevallos J. , Ruiz J. ,
  • 90+1', 1 - 1, Palacios B. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Universidad Católica del Ecuador
55.1%
Draw
25.8%
Emelec
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.6% 25.1% 14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8% 24.2% 13.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Universidad Católica del Ecuador's form might have worsened.
  • Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universidad Católica del Ecuador, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-5.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Emelec, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.68
    (1.53)
    3.6
    (3.7)
    4.78
    (6.5)
    8.1%
    (7.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 9 - 90%). Emelec will win (votes: 1 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 71.4%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 3.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • In this match, Uni Católica is considered a favorite.
    • In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 2:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 2.3:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec were as follows:
    16.02.2025 Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:4
    26.10.2024 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec 2:0
    05.05.2024 Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 2:1
    28.10.2023 Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 2:1
    20.05.2023 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec 3:2
    Latest results of Emelec
    21.06.2025 Emelec - Delfín 2:2
    31.05.2025 Emelec - Orense 1:0
    25.05.2025 El Nacional - Emelec 2:0
    11.05.2025 Emelec - SD Aucas 0:1
    Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
    Main
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. del Valle ✔ 301810255:233264
    2Barcelona SC ✔ 30166846:331354
    3LDU Quito ✔ 30149748:311751
    4U. Catolica301310758:391949
    5Orense30138934:32247
    6Libertad301210842:36646
    7Dep. Cuenca301371035:29646
    8Emelec ✔ 301191030:34-442
    9Aucas ✔ 301181138:41-341
    10Macara ✔ 309111032:30238
    11EL Nacional ✔ 30971432:46-1434
    12Delfin306131126:42-1631
    13Tecnico U30771626:46-2028
    14Vinotinto30761734:43-927
    15Mushuc Runa ✔ 30761738:50-1227
    16Manta ✔ 305111434:53-1926

          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
          Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
    Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
    LDU Quito is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
    Emelec is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
    Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
    Macara is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
    EL Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
    Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
    Manta is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )