Result
3:2
04/10/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Besta deild karla - Championship Group - Round 3
- Referee: Jonasson H. M. (Ice)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.73 | 1.51 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (258/313) | 88% (407/462) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.73 | 1.51 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 2.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 35 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (258/313) | 88% (407/462) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (33/65) | 63% (35/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (47/74) | 71% (94/133) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (8/24) | 24% (8/34) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.70 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (4/5) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 28 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.01 | 0.68 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | -2.32 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', Nakkim M. 🟨,
- 5', 0 - 1, Bjarnason A. (Pen),
- 30', Larusson S. 🟨,
- 35', Haraldsson T. 🟨,
- 36', Orvarsson O. 🟨,
- 42', 1 - 1, Eyjolfsson H. ⚽, Larusson S. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 52', 2 - 1, Jonsson J. ⚽, Haraldsson T. (A),
- 57', Hauksson A. 🟨,
- 61', 2 - 2, Nokkvason G. ⚽, Orvarsson O. (A),
- 62', Bjarnason A. ↓, Conteh A. ↑,
- 73', 3 - 2, Jonsson J. ⚽, Heimisson B. (A),
- 77', Larusson S. ↓, Gunnarsson H. ↑,
- 77', Skoglund A. ↓, Heimisson L. ↑,
- 82', Hauksson A. ↓, Gunnarsson J. ↑,
- 82', Palsson J. ↓, Antonsson B. ↑,
- 82', Palsson A. ↓, Omarsson O. ↑,
- 90', Ingimarsson S. T. ↓, Birgisson A. ↑,
- 90+4', Jonsson J. ↓, Hoti A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Valur
41.7% | Draw
24.5% | Stjarnan
33.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Valur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Valur's form might have worsened.Stjarnan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stjarnan's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valur than the current prediction. (+13%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Valur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stjarnan than the current prediction. (-10.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stjarnan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Valur - Stjarnan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.37 ↑
(1.71) |
4.01 ↓
(4.27) |
2.93 ↓
(3.93) |
1.4%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.75
What is the prediction for Valur - Stjarnan?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Valur will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Stjarnan will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Stjarnan (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valur won 2.
- Recent form of Valur has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Stjarnan is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Valur won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 42:29. (average 2.1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Valur won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 28:13. (average 2.5:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Valur won against Stjarnan?
Valur has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Stjarnan won against Valur?
Stjarnan has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Valur - Stjarnan were as follows:
14.09.2025
Valur
-
Stjarnan
1:2
01.07.2025
Valur
-
Stjarnan
3:1
14.06.2025
Stjarnan
-
Valur
3:2
23.09.2024
Valur
-
Stjarnan
2:2
30.05.2024
Valur
-
Stjarnan
5:1
Latest results of Stjarnan
Icelandic Besta-deild karla Table
Championship Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik ✔ | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 54:30 | 24 | 51 |
| 2 | Valur | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 57:40 | 17 | 44 |
| 3 | Stjarnan | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 47:41 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 42:38 | 4 | 39 |
| 5 | Hafnarfjordur | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 42:38 | 4 | 32 |
| 6 | Fram | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 36:36 | 0 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Vikingur Reykjavik is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (Qualification )
