Result
1:0
03/10/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 9
- Referee: Pavlesic P. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 1.12 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (329/413) | 82% (341/418) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 1.12 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.43 | 1.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 10 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (329/413) | 82% (341/418) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (22/51) | 56% (31/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 53% (39/73) | 69% (73/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (3/12) | 24% (5/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.18 | 1.45 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (14/22) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.03 | 0.43 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.03 | -0.57 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 30', Duvnjak T. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Abdullazada R. ↓, Vuk M. ↑,
- 54', Maresic D. 🟨,
- 63', Ba L. 🟨,
- 63', Robertsson L. ↓, Rozic V. ↑,
- 64', 1 - 0, Loncar S. ⚽, Kadusic A. (A),
- 67', Latkovic A. ↓, Mamic L. ↑,
- 75', Mamut I. ↓, Dabro M. ↑,
- 75', Marina M. ↓, Bockaj P. ↑,
- 82', Mauric A. ↓, Frederiksen E. ↑,
- 85', Lawal S. ↓, Zgomba M. ↑,
- 86', Tavares I. ↓, Antunovic M. ↑,
- 90+1', Vuk M. 🟨,
- 90+2', Koski V. 🟨,
- 90+6', Prevljak S. 🟨,
- 90+6', Zelenika O. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Istra 1961
41.3% | Draw
30% | Varaždin
28.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Istra 1961 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Istra 1961's form might have worsened.Varaždin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Varaždin's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (+11.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Istra 1961, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (-6.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Varaždin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Istra 1961 - Varaždin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.27 ↑
(1.83) |
3.12 ↓
(3.43) |
3.28 ↓
(4.05) |
6.6%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 - Varaždin?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Istra 1961 will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Varaždin will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Istra 1961: 44.1% – 94.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Istra 1961 will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 1.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- Istra 1961 will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Varaždin: Belcar L.
(Yellow Cards)
Bockaj P.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Istra 1961: Heister M.
(Inactive)
Jay A.
(Inactive)
Rozic V.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 0.9:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Istra 1961 won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 0.9:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Istra 1961 won against Varaždin?
Istra 1961 has won 4 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Varaždin won against Istra 1961?
Varaždin has won 3 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Istra 1961 - Varaždin were as follows:
11.05.2025
Istra 1961
-
Varaždin
0:0
08.03.2025
Varaždin
-
Istra 1961
0:0
07.12.2024
Istra 1961
-
Varaždin
0:0
20.09.2024
Varaždin
-
Istra 1961
1:0
17.05.2024
Istra 1961
-
Varaždin
2:0
Latest results of Istra 1961
Latest results of Varaždin
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | D. Zagreb | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22:8 | 14 | 22 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17:7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Lok. Zagreb | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:12 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Slaven Belupo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 13 |
| 5 | Varazdin | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rijeka | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Gorica | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:13 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Osijek | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
