Result
2:1
20/03/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 27
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 |
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 1.51 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (263/366) | 76% (323/424) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 1.51 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 1.45 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (263/366) | 76% (323/424) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 29% (19/65) | 51% (31/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (68/120) | 69% (95/138) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (5/25) | 16% (3/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 1.01 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 26 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 88% (14/16) | 70% (7/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.45 | -0.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 11', 0 - 1, Latkovic A. ⚽, Maglica F. (A),
- 27', Radosevic J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Tavares I. ↓, Borsic A. ↑,
- 46', Gorican S. ↓, Rozic V. ↑,
- 46', Loncar S. ↓, Ahmeti D. ↑,
- 62', Sikosek G. ↓, Mladenovski M. ↑,
- 69', Stulac L. ↓, Obando A. ↑,
- 69', Latkovic A. ↓, Marina M. ↑,
- 78', 1 - 1, Heister M. ⚽,
- 80', 2 - 1, Radosevic J. ⚽,
- 81', Frederiksen E. ↓, Ayuma I. ↑,
- 83', Canjuga I. ↓, Bockaj P. ↑,
- 84', Puncec R. ↓, Paizinho ↑,
- 86', Prevljak S. ↓, Taraba F. ↑,
Chances of winning
Istra 1961
35.8% | Draw
31.4% | Varaždin
32.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Istra 1961 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)Varaždin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Istra 1961, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
Istra 1961 - Varaždin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.61 ↑
(2.3) |
2.99 ↓
(3.18) |
2.85 ↓
(2.99) |
6.9%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 - Varaždin?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Istra 1961 will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Varaždin will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Istra 1961: 30.4% – 86.2%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 and 4).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 2.
- Istra 1961 is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Varaždin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, Varaždin has had a series of home games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Varaždin: Barac M.
(Inactive)
Ilinkovic S.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.1:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Istra 1961 won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 0.9:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Istra 1961 won against Varaždin?
Istra 1961 has won 6 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Varaždin won against Istra 1961?
Varaždin has won 3 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Istra 1961 - Varaždin were as follows:
19.12.2025
Varaždin
-
Istra 1961
1:3
03.10.2025
Istra 1961
-
Varaždin
1:0
11.05.2025
Istra 1961
-
Varaždin
0:0
08.03.2025
Varaždin
-
Istra 1961
0:0
07.12.2024
Istra 1961
-
Varaždin
0:0
Latest results of Istra 1961
Latest results of Varaždin
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Din. Zagreb | 28 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 75:22 | 53 | 66 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 48:26 | 22 | 56 |
| 3 | Rijeka | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 39:31 | 8 | 41 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 35:39 | -4 | 38 |
| 5 | Istra 1961 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 34:40 | -6 | 36 |
| 6 | Slaven Belupo | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37:44 | -7 | 36 |
| 7 | Gorica | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 34:39 | -5 | 32 |
| 8 | Lok. Zagreb | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 32:46 | -14 | 31 |
| 9 | Osijek | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 22:43 | -21 | 25 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 27:53 | -26 | 21 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
