Result
2:0
08/02/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 6
- Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.06 | 0.09 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 72% | 28% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 2 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (248/338) | 46% (63/137) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.06 | 0.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.10 | 0.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 2 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
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| 4 | 0 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (248/338) | 46% (63/137) |
| Long passes |
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| 30% (16/53) | 23% (12/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (68/106) | 31% (15/49) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/27) | 13% (1/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.07 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 32 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 94% (16/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.03 | 2.10 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.03 | 0.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 3', Marquinhos 🟨,
- 39', Robert Renan 🟨,
- 44', Marquinhos 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Matheus Martins ↓, Arthur Izaque ↑,
- 46', Barboza A. ↓, Bernardo Valim ↑,
- 46', Nathan Fernandes ↓, Kauan Toledo ↑,
- 46', Moreira N. ↓, GB ↑,
- 49', 1 - 0, Brenner ⚽,
- 63', 2 - 0, Coutinho (Penalty Awarded),
- 73', Barria K. ↓, Caio Valle ↑,
- 74', Brenner ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
- 75', Andres Gomez ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
- 80', Coutinho ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
- 81', Barrera J. ↓, Arthur Novaes ↑,
- 84', Thiago Mendes ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama
60.2% | Draw
24.8% | Botafogo RJ
15% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-16.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+12.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.59 ↓
(2.18) |
3.86 ↑
(3.17) |
6.35 ↑
(3.32) |
4.7%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ?
Users Predictions:
Vasco da Gama will win
(12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vasco da Gama will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Botafogo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Vasco has had a series of away games.
- Recently, Botafogo has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Vasco is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:25. (average 0.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 0.9:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Botafogo RJ?
Vasco da Gama has won 5 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Botafogo RJ won against Vasco da Gama?
Botafogo RJ has won 4 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ were as follows:
05.11.2025
Botafogo RJ
-
Vasco da Gama
3:0
11.09.2025
Botafogo RJ
-
Vasco da Gama
1:2
27.08.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Botafogo RJ
1:1
12.07.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Botafogo RJ
0:2
23.02.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Botafogo RJ
1:0
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Latest results of Botafogo RJ
Draw
Taca Guanabara - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Bangu | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Vasco | Volta Redonda | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Botafogo RJ | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Madureira | Boavista | 2 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Vasco | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Madureira | 3 : 0 |
Final
