Result
0:1
08/11/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 11
- Referee: Narciso A. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.27 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (307/391) | 82% (325/394) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.27 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 0.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (307/391) | 82% (325/394) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (23/69) | 38% (20/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (67/106) | 70% (71/102) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (5/21) | 12% (2/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 0.55 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 85% (11/13) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.52 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.18 | 1.52 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 56', Camara O. 🟨,
- 61', Tavares H. ↓, Yarlen ↑,
- 62', Medina B. 🟨,
- 68', Mitrovic M. ↓, Nogueira M. ↑,
- 80', Bebeto ↓, Manso T. ↑,
- 80', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
- 80', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
- 80', Samu ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
- 80', Arcanjo T. ↓, Saviolo N. ↑,
- 85', Sithole S. ↓, Cicero ↑,
- 85', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
- 88', Saviolo N. 🟨,
- 90+1', Manso T. 🟨,
- 90+2', Bernardo 🟨,
- 90+2', 0 - 1, Camara O. (Pen),
- 90+5', Camara O. ↓, Nobrega M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Tondela
34% | Draw
29.5% | Vitoria Guimarães
36.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+3.1%)
Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.83 ↓
(2.93) |
3.23 ↓
(3.4) |
2.61 ↑
(2.52) |
4.7%
(3.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Guimarães will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Tondela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Tondela has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Guimarães: Blanco F.
(Red Card)
Gustavo
(Injury)
Ndoye A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:26. (average 0.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Tondela has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Tondela?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães were as follows:
09.09.2023
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Tondela
0:1
22.07.2023
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Tondela
1:1
Latest results of Tondela
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
