Result
5:0
03/04/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 28
- Referee: Macedo C. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 8 |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.55 | 0.06 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (327/390) | 82% (301/369) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.55 | 0.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.18 | 0.07 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 4 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (327/390) | 82% (301/369) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (18/44) | 47% (17/36) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (64/84) | 58% (35/60) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (4/15) | 13% (1/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.10 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (9/18) | 92% (11/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.07 | 3.18 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.07 | -1.82 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Camara O. ⚽, Nogueira G. (A),
- 18', 2 - 0, Nogueira M. ⚽, Camara O. (A),
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 47', Medina B. 🟨,
- 51', 3 - 0, Samu (Penalty Awarded),
- 55', 4 - 0, Gustavo ⚽,
- 56', van der Heide A. ↓, Ouattara M. ↑,
- 56', Maviram E. ↓, Conceicao R. ↑,
- 56', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Aiko M. ↑,
- 65', 5 - 0, Mendes J. II. (Penalty Awarded),
- 67', Samu ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
- 67', Nogueira M. ↓, Saviolo N. ↑,
- 68', Rony Lopes ↓, Felix H. ↑,
- 75', Strata T. ↓, Maga ↑,
- 75', Gustavo ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
- 80', Hodge J. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
- 81', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
- 87', Sousa D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vitoria Guimarães
49.6% | Draw
27% | Tondela
23.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+8.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitoria Guimarães, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.92 ↑
(1.78) |
3.5 ↓
(3.58) |
4.07 ↓
(4.64) |
5.2%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 50.5% – 99.5%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +0.5 - Tondela (3.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 1 - 50%). Tondela (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 2.
- Guimarães is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Tondela has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, Tondela has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Guimarães is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Tondela: Cicero
(Muscle Injury)
Felix H.
(Muscle Injury)
Rony Lopes
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Tondela: Tavares H.
(Injury)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:17. (average 1.4:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Tondela?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Tondela has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela were as follows:
08.11.2025
Tondela
-
Vitoria Guimarães
0:1
09.09.2023
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Tondela
0:1
22.07.2023
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Tondela
1:1
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
