Result
2:0
09/08/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 19
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.17 | 0.25 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (418/480) | 79% (283/357) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.17 | 0.25 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.91 | 0.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (418/480) | 79% (283/357) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (16/31) | 45% (18/40) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 86% (113/132) | 59% (47/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (5/14) | 25% (4/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.50 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 72% (13/18) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.91 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.50 | -0.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 20', 1 - 0, Bobadilla D. ⚽,
- 32', Ze Marcos 🟨,
- 42', Ronald Lopes 🟨,
- 44', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 60', Maik 🟨,
- 63', Ledesma R. 🟨,
- 65', Ferreira ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
- 65', Marcos Antonio ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 71', Romarinho ↓, Fabricio ↑,
- 71', Edu ↓, Cantalapiedra A. ↑,
- 77', Diaz E. ↓, Patryck ↑,
- 77', Andre Silva ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 81', Lopez R. ↓, Osvaldo ↑,
- 81', Ricardo Ryller ↓, Rodrigues R. ↑,
- 86', 2 - 0, Sabino ⚽, Ferraresi N. (A),
- 88', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
57.8% | Draw
26.9% | Vitória Salvador
15.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+7.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
São Paulo - Vitória Salvador Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.65 ↑
(1.5) |
3.51 ↓
(3.75) |
6.15 ↓
(7.5) |
5.5%
(6.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Vitória Salvador?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Vitória will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 35% – 88%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Vitória (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 16).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 5.
- São Paulo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Vitória has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Muscle Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Wendell
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Vitória: Caceres R.
(Yellow Cards)
Jamerson
(Ankle Injury)
Matheuzinho
(Heel Injury)
- There are questionable in Vitória: Caceres R.
(Injury)
- We predict that São Paulo will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:12. (average 2.1:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 2.5:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Vitória Salvador?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitória Salvador won against São Paulo?
Vitória Salvador has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Vitória Salvador were as follows:
25.08.2024
São Paulo
-
Vitória Salvador
2:1
05.05.2024
Vitória Salvador
-
São Paulo
1:3
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:14 | 18 | 38 |
| 4 | Bahia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23:11 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:19 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Internacional | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22:26 | -4 | 24 |
| 13 | Gremio | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 22 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:29 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25:26 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
