Result
1:0
07/12/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 38
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.34 | 0.34 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (194/260) | 84% (384/456) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.34 | 0.34 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.09 | 0.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (194/260) | 84% (384/456) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (20/43) | 35% (13/37) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (66/105) | 77% (82/107) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (6/25) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.33 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (12/20) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 40 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.05 | 2.09 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.05 | 1.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 20', Camutanga 🟨,
- 42', Ferreira 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Cantalapiedra A. ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
- 46', Camutanga ↓, Dudu ↑,
- 46', Alisson ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 46', Ferreira ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
- 58', Luciano ↓, Rigoni E. ↑,
- 64', Caceres R. ↓, Fabricio ↑,
- 68', 1 - 0, Baralhas ⚽, Fabricio (A),
- 70', Baralhas 🟨,
- 73', Renato Kayzer ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
- 77', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
- 82', Baralhas ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
- 82', Soares C. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 86', Willian Oliveira 🟨,
- 90+3', Matheuzinho 🟨,
- 90+3', Ronald Lopes 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vitória Salvador
39.2% | Draw
30.4% | São Paulo
30.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitória Salvador's form might have worsened.São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Paulo's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+8.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitória Salvador, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-7.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Paulo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Vitória Salvador - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.42 ↑
(2.01) |
3.12 ↓
(3.17) |
3.1 ↓
(4.1) |
5.7%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vitória Salvador - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitória: 29.2% – 76.6%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Vitória (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Vitória (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vitória Salvador will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Vitória (votes: 5 - 83.3%). São Paulo (votes: 1 - 16.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- São Paulo is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 0.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Vitória will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Vitória: Edu
(Injury)
Fintelman
(Hip Injury)
Jamerson
(Ankle Injury)
Lucas Arcanjo
(Knee Injury)
Ramos R.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Bobadilla D.
(Yellow Cards)
Diaz E.
(Hip Injury)
Dinenno J.
(Knee Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luan Silva
(Muscle Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Knee Injury)
Oscar
(Heart Problems)
Rodriguinho
(Knee Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Wendell
(Heel Injury)
- There are questionable in Vitória: Carlinhos
(Inactive)
Claudinho
(Knee Injury)
Dudu
(Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Franco A.
(Injury)
Luciano
(Injury)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 12:27. (average 0.9:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.3:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Vitória Salvador won against São Paulo?
Vitória Salvador has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Vitória Salvador?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vitória Salvador - São Paulo were as follows:
09.08.2025
São Paulo
-
Vitória Salvador
2:0
25.08.2024
São Paulo
-
Vitória Salvador
2:1
05.05.2024
Vitória Salvador
-
São Paulo
1:3
Latest results of Vitória Salvador
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Corinthians | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Gremio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Santos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Remo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Atletico-MG | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Internacional | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Vasco | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
