Mainz vs Wolfsburg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
3:1
24/01/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 19
  • Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStartimes Sports Focus
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 6
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
bulgariaBulgariaPlay Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 8
denmarkDenmarkSee, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch
greeceGreeceNova Sports 4
hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 3
portugalPortugalDAZN 4, DAZN / App
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
4.040.67
Ball possession
59%41%
Total shots
207
Shots on target
92
Big chances
91
Corner kicks
151
Passes
79% (337/428)68% (217/320)
Yellow cards
32
Expected goals (xG)
4.040.67
xG on target (xGOT)
4.810.82
Total shots
207
Shots on target
92
Shots off target
53
Blocked shots
62
Shots inside the box
164
Shots outside the box
43
Hit the woodwork
10
Headed goals
10
Big chances
91
Corner kicks
151
Touches in opposition box
3310
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
20
Free kicks
118
Passes
79% (337/428)68% (217/320)
Long passes
47% (28/59)34% (20/59)
Passes in final third
70% (103/147)50% (44/88)
Crosses
21% (10/47)17% (2/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.340.18
Throw ins
2820
Fouls
811
Tackles
53% (9/17)75% (15/20)
Duels won
6271
Clearances
3057
Interceptions
82
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
15
xGOT faced
0.824.81
Goals prevented
-0.181.81

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 3', 0 - 1, Amoura M. ⚽, Kumbedi S. (A),
  • 22', Tietz P. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 33', Posch S. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 60', Wimmer P. 🟨,
  • 65', Nebel P. ↓, Amiri N. ↑,
  • 65', da Costa D. ↓, Mwene P. ↑,
  • 66', Amoura M. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
  • 68', 1 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Amiri N. (A),
  • 70', Vini Souza 🟨,
  • 73', 2 - 1, Bell S. ⚽, Hollerbach B. (A),
  • 75', Wimmer P. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
  • 75', Vini Souza ↓, Majer L. ↑,
  • 83', 3 - 1, Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 84', Eriksen C. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
  • 84', Gerhardt Y. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
  • 86', Kohr D. 🟨,
  • 90', Hollerbach B. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 90', Tietz P. ↓, Silas ↑,
  • 90+2', Bell S. 🟨,
  • 90+6', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,

Chances of winning


Mainz
41.1%		Draw
27.8%		Wolfsburg
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.5% 26.9% 32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1% 26.5% 32.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)
  • Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
  • The ML Model estimate for Mainz aligns with the current prediction.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
    •

    Mainz - Wolfsburg Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.32 ↓
    (2.35)    		 3.42 ↓
    (3.53)    		 3.05 ↑
    (2.92)    		 5.1%
    (5.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Wolfsburg?
  • Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 13 - 48.1%). Wolfsburg will win (votes: 9 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 29.3% – 66.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Mainz (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • AH -1 - Wolfsburg (1.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Wolfsburg (1.62) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Wolfsburg (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Wolfsburg (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Wolfsburg (votes: 7 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 12).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in Wolfsburg: Arnold M. (Yellow Cards) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Maehle J. (Shoulder Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Wind J. (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Amiri N. (Illness) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Hollerbach B. (Illness) Leitsch M. (Injury) Veratschnig N. (Injury) Weiper N. (Illness)
    • There are questionable in Wolfsburg: Seelt J. (Illness)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:36. (average 1:1.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 0.9:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Wolfsburg were as follows:
    31.08.2025 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:1
    19.04.2025 Mainz - Wolfsburg 2:2
    08.12.2024 Wolfsburg - Mainz 4:3
    18.05.2024 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:3
    13.01.2024 Mainz - Wolfsburg 1:1
    Latest results of Mainz
    17.01.2026 Köln - Mainz 2:1 ✺
    13.01.2026 Mainz - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    10.01.2026 Union Berlin - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    21.12.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 0:0 ✺
    18.12.2025 Mainz - Samsunspor 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Wolfsburg
    17.01.2026 Wolfsburg - Heidenheim 1:1 ✺
    14.01.2026 Wolfsburg - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺
    11.01.2026 Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg 8:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Wolfsburg - Freiburg 3:4 ✺
    13.12.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Wolfsburg 1:3 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich24203188:236563
    2Dortmund24157251:252652
    3Hoffenheim24144649:311846
    4Stuttgart24144648:321646
    5RB Leipzig24135646:331344
    6Bayer Leverkusen23124744:291540
    7Eintracht Frankfurt2497848:49-134
    8Freiburg2496934:39-533
    9Augsburg24941130:41-1131
    10Union Berlin24771029:38-928
    11Hamburger SV2368926:34-826
    12B. Monchengladbach24671127:39-1225
    13FC Koln24661233:41-824
    14Mainz24581127:39-1223
    15St. Pauli24651323:40-1723
    16Werder Bremen24571225:44-1922
    17Wolfsburg24551433:53-2020
    18Heidenheim24351622:53-3114

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          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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