Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Hockey NHL
Result
4:2
28/03/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • NHL
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
germanyGermanyNHL.tv
icelandIcelandViaplay
italyItalyDAZN Italia
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
norwayNorwayViaplay
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDAZN
uruguayUruguayDisney+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldNHL.tv

Match Stats

Shots on Goal
2728
Shots off target
2510
Shooting PCT
14.81% (4/27)7.14% (2/28)
Blocked shots
2510
Goalkeeper Saves
2623
Saves PCT
92.86% (26/28)85.19% (23/27)
Penalties
35
PIM
610
Power-play Goals
00
Shorthanded Goals
00
Power-play PCT
0% (0/5)0% (0/3)
Pen. Killing PCT
100% (3/3)100% (5/5)
Hits
2123
Faceoffs Won
2935
Faceoffs %
45.3154.69
Giveaways
1418
Takeaways
17
Empty Net Goals
00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Period (0 - 2)
  • 00:18, 0 - 1, Cozens D. (G), Kleven T. (A), Tkachuk B. (A2)
  • 04:25, 0 - 2, Spence J. (G), Cousins N. (A), Zub A. (A2)
  • 09:09, Batherson D. (2 min),
  • 18:14, Foegele W. (2 min),
  • 2nd Period (2 - 0)
  • 03:37, 1 - 2, Hagel B. (G), D'Astous C. (A), Lilleberg E. (A2)
  • 05:14, 2 - 2, D'Astous C. (G), Gourde Y. (A), Girgensons Z. (A2)
  • 07:40, Lilleberg E. (2 min),
  • 08:09, Cirelli A. (2 min),
  • 08:09, Yakemchuk C. (2 min),
  • 08:09, Cozens D. (2 min),
  • 17:52, Cernak E. (2 min),
  • 19:23, Tkachuk B. (2 min),
  • 3rd Period (2 - 0)
  • 08:51, 3 - 2, Lilleberg E. (G), Hagel B. (A), Goncalves G. (A2)
  • 17:48, 4 - 2, Guentzel J. (G), Perry C. (A), Lilleberg E. (A2)

Highlights

Chances of winning


Tampa Bay Lightning
44.6%		Draw
22.4%		Ottawa Senators
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.3% 21.9% 30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5% 20.5% 28.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tampa Bay Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
  • Ottawa Senators has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tampa Bay Lightning, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ottawa Senators than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
    •

    Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.11 ↑
    (2.05)    		 4.25 ↓
    (4.42)    		 2.86 ↓
    (3.15)    		 5.9%
    (3.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 5.75
    What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Ottawa will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 19% – 81%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 4:3.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 10).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2.
    • In recent matches, Tampa Bay has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Ottawa is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Tampa Bay could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Tampa Bay: Carlile D. (Lower-Body Injury) Crozier M. (Muscle Injury) Hedman V. (Personal Reasons) James D. (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Ottawa: Chabot T. (Arm Injury) Gilbert D. (Upper-Body Injury) Jensen N. (Knee Injury) Sanderson J. (Upper-Body Injury) Thomson L. (Lower-Body Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 68:71. (average 3.4:3.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 32:25. (average 3.6:2.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators were as follows:
    09.10.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators 4:5
    03.04.2025 Ottawa Senators - Tampa Bay Lightning 2:1
    06.02.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators 5:1
    04.02.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators 4:3
    19.10.2024 Ottawa Senators - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:4
    Latest results of Tampa Bay Lightning
    26.03.2026 Tampa Bay Lightning - Seattle Kraken 3:4 ✺
    24.03.2026 Tampa Bay Lightning - Minnesota Wild 6:3 ✺
    22.03.2026 Calgary Flames - Tampa Bay Lightning 4:3 ✺
    21.03.2026 Edmonton Oilers - Tampa Bay Lightning 2:5 ✺
    19.03.2026 Vancouver Canucks - Tampa Bay Lightning 2:6 ✺
    Latest results of Ottawa Senators
    26.03.2026 Ottawa Senators - Pittsburgh Penguins 3:4 ✺
    24.03.2026 Detroit Red Wings - Ottawa Senators 2:3 ✺
    23.03.2026 New York Rangers - Ottawa Senators 1:2 ✺
    21.03.2026 Ottawa Senators - Toronto Maple Leafs 5:2 ✺
    19.03.2026 Ottawa Senators - New York Islanders 3:2 ✺
    NHL Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Colorado Avalanche ✔ 724261014268:183106
    2Dallas Stars ✔ 7334101118251:20199
    3Minnesota Wild7426151221242:21694
    4Anaheim Ducks732417428245:25186
    5Edmonton Oilers74289928258:25183
    6Utah Mammoth74299630235:21282
    7Vegas Golden Knights732481526228:22979
    8Nashville Predators73259930218:24377
    9Los Angeles Kings7319101826195:22276
    10Seattle Kraken722571129206:22475
    11Winnipeg Jets732561230209:22574
    12San Jose Sharks712112731215:25373
    13St. Louis Blues722741130191:22773
    14Calgary Flames72237834182:22268
    15Chicago Blackhawks732071333189:23967
    16Vancouver Canucks71147842182:26650


    Eastern Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Carolina Hurricanes723313620257:21398
    2Buffalo Sabres74378821259:21898
    3Tampa Bay Lightning72369621264:20196
    4Montreal Canadiens7229121021255:23292
    5Boston Bruins733011824246:22790
    6New York Islanders742814527216:20989
    7Pittsburgh Penguins732971621250:23488
    8Columbus Blue Jackets7327111124234:22287
    9Detroit Red Wings732811826215:21886
    10Ottawa Senators733261025244:22486
    11Philadelphia Flyers7223131224214:21884
    12Washington Capitals73315928227:21581
    13New Jersey Devils722512233199:22076
    14Toronto Maple Leafs742381330230:26075
    15Florida Panthers72278334215:24173
    16New York Rangers73209935208:23167

          Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Colorado Avalanche is Qualified for NHL (Play Offs )
    Dallas Stars is Qualified for NHL (Play Offs )
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