Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Australian A-League
Result
2:1
17/01/2026 at 03:35 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • A-League - Round 13
  • Referee: Keevers L. (Aus)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustralia10 Play, Paramount+
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live, myTV SUPER
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport 3, Sky Sport 5
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.362.03
Ball possession
53%47%
Total shots
1519
Shots on target
44
Big chances
23
Corner kicks
51
Passes
80% (381/475)75% (326/432)
Yellow cards
24
Expected goals (xG)
1.362.03
xG on target (xGOT)
1.732.06
Total shots
1519
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
611
Blocked shots
54
Shots inside the box
1310
Shots outside the box
29
Hit the woodwork
10
Headed goals
10
Big chances
23
Corner kicks
51
Touches in opposition box
3026
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
23
Free kicks
912
Passes
80% (381/475)75% (326/432)
Long passes
33% (21/64)50% (29/58)
Passes in final third
62% (67/108)68% (99/146)
Crosses
20% (3/15)67% (4/6)
Expected assists (xA)
0.610.48
Throw ins
1526
Fouls
129
Tackles
77% (17/22)61% (11/18)
Duels won
5561
Clearances
2522
Interceptions
1813
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper saves
32
xGOT faced
2.061.73
Goals prevented
1.06-0.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 6', 1 - 0, Goodwin C. ⚽, Yull J. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 60', Clarismario 🟨,
  • 62', Kikianis P. 🟨,
  • 67', Riak A. ↓, Burkitt B. ↑,
  • 67', Anselmo ↓, Garuccio J. ↑,
  • 67', Velupillay N. ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
  • 67', Vergos N. ↓, Reec J. ↑,
  • 67', Clarismario ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
  • 75', 1 - 1, Grimaldi M. ⚽,
  • 78', Genreau D. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
  • 84', White R. 🟨,
  • 85', Jackson L. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Mata J. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Mata J. ↓, Stella X. ↑,
  • 90+3', Duzel L. ↓, Muniz J. ↑,
  • 90+3', Barnett J. ↓, Madanha P. ↑,
  • 90+7', 2 - 1, Kitto R. ⚽, Muniz J. (A),
  • 90+8', Grimaldi M. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Adelaide United
30.1%		Draw
24.9%		Melbourne Victory
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.7% 26.1% 42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5% 25.1% 43.8%

Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 3.12 ↑
(2.93)		 3.76 ↑
(3.55)		 2.1 ↓
(2.19)		 6.2%
(7.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Adelaide will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 23.4% – 70.8%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 7).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 1.
    • Recent performances by Adelaide have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Melbourne Victory is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Melbourne Victory may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Melbourne Victory has had a series of home games.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Adelaide: Pierias D. (Inactive) Vriends B. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Davidson J. (Yellow Cards) Hamill B. (Knee Injury) Rawlins J. (International duty) Roderick (Leg Injury) Valadon J. (International duty)
    • There are questionable in Adelaide: Anselmo (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:27. (average 1.4:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.5:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory were as follows:
    13.12.2025 Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United 2:1
    29.03.2025 Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United 5:3
    18.01.2025 Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory 3:2
    21.09.2024 Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United 1:0
    09.03.2024 Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory 1:2
    Latest results of Adelaide United
    10.01.2026 Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United 2:2 ✺
    04.01.2026 Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners 0:4 ✺
    27.12.2025 Adelaide United - Western Sydney Wanderers 3:2 ✺
    20.12.2025 Perth Glory - Adelaide United 0:1 ✺
    13.12.2025 Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United 2:1 ✺
    Latest results of Melbourne Victory
    10.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers 0:1 ✺
    02.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory 3:2 ✺
    29.12.2025 Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix 5:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory 0:1 ✺
    13.12.2025 Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United 2:1 ✺
    Australian A-League Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Auckland FC1373319:13624
    2Sydney FC1271418:9922
    3Newcastle Jets1370626:24221
    4Brisbane Roar1463513:13021
    5Melbourne City1455414:12220
    6Macarthur FC1455415:18-320
    7Adelaide United1361620:20019
    8Wellington Phoenix1353521:22-118
    9Melbourne Victory1352616:18-217
    10Perth Glory1351716:18-216
    11Central Coast Mariners1333716:21-512
    12WS Wanderers1333710:16-612

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