Result
1:2
21/02/2026 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 34
- Referee: Dowle K. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.70 | 0.71 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (292/402) | 67% (204/304) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.70 | 0.71 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 1.67 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (292/402) | 67% (204/304) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (27/75) | 40% (32/80) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (72/124) | 44% (48/110) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (6/23) | 36% (4/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 0.61 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 39 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (18/24) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 51 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.67 | 1.23 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.33 | 0.23 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 27', Pond A. 🟨,
- 37', O'Reilly T. ↓, Thibaut A. ↑,
- 45+2', 0 - 1, Holicek M. ⚽, Thibaut A. (A),
- 45+3', Drinan A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 52', Ball J. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
- 53', Scanlon J. ↓, Olakigbe M. ↑,
- 53', 0 - 2, March J. ⚽, Powell J. (A),
- 64', 1 - 2, Olakigbe M. ⚽, Holman F. (A),
- 68', Nichols T. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
- 79', Batty J. ↓, Mabete F. ↑,
- 79', Snowdon J. ↓, Hoilett J. ↑,
- 82', Thibaut A. ↓, Bogle O. ↑,
Chances of winning
Swindon Town
47.7% | Draw
26.4% | Crewe Alexandra
25.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.97 ↓
(1.98) |
3.55 ↑
(3.45) |
3.56 ↑
(3.4) |
7%
(8.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Swindon (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Swindon Town will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 1.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- Swindon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Swindon could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D.
(Inactive)
Glatzel P.
(Inactive)
Minturn H.
(Groin Injury)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
Tafazolli R.
(Injury)
Wilson-Brown T.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Crewe: Lankester J.
(Knee Injury)
Sanders M. H.
(Inactive)
Tabiner J.
(Knee Injury)
Tezgel E.
(Ankle Injury)
Tracey S.
(Broken Leg)
- There are questionable in Swindon: Bodin B.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 35:26. (average 1.8:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 2:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Crewe Alexandra?
Swindon Town has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Crewe Alexandra won against Swindon Town?
Crewe Alexandra has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra were as follows:
30.08.2025
Crewe Alexandra
-
Swindon Town
0:3
11.01.2025
Swindon Town
-
Crewe Alexandra
0:0
24.08.2024
Crewe Alexandra
-
Swindon Town
0:0
13.01.2024
Crewe Alexandra
-
Swindon Town
2:1
12.08.2023
Swindon Town
-
Crewe Alexandra
2:2
Latest results of Swindon Town
Latest results of Crewe Alexandra
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 58:35 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 49:27 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 63:34 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Swindon | 35 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 57:41 | 16 | 62 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:33 | 19 | 61 |
| 6 | Crewe | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 52:41 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Salford | 33 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 46:43 | 3 | 55 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 52:44 | 8 | 53 |
| 9 | Barnet | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 44:37 | 7 | 53 |
| 10 | Walsall | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 42:36 | 6 | 53 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 46:37 | 9 | 52 |
| 12 | Colchester | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 48:35 | 13 | 49 |
| 13 | Accrington | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 37:36 | 1 | 46 |
| 14 | Oldham | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 36:30 | 6 | 45 |
| 15 | Fleetwood | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 43:42 | 1 | 45 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 41:41 | 0 | 44 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 34:54 | -20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 34:55 | -21 | 36 |
| 19 | Tranmere | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 46:59 | -13 | 35 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 33:57 | -24 | 31 |
| 21 | Crawley | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33:56 | -23 | 28 |
| 22 | Barrow | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 33:51 | -18 | 27 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25:52 | -27 | 27 |
| 24 | Newport | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 32:60 | -28 | 25 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
