Result
3:3
27/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eerste Divisie - Round 29
- Referee: van de Graaf E. (Ned)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 2.11 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (175/256) | 88% (510/581) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 2.11 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 2.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (175/256) | 88% (510/581) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 34% (21/62) | 53% (28/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (64/96) | 75% (112/150) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (8/24) | 30% (8/27) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 1.71 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 31% (4/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.03 | 1.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.97 | -1.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 9', 1 - 0, Braken S. ⚽, Silva Timas I. (A),
- 21', 1 - 1, Eggens N. ⚽,
- 26', 1 - 2, Niemeijer R. ⚽, Martens N. (A),
- 29', Besselink R. 🟨,
- 41', Breugelmans I. ↓, Zaian A. ↑,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 49', Zaian A. 🟨,
- 61', Klaasen R. ↓, de Jong T. ↑,
- 61', Silva Timas I. ↓, Foubert L. ↑,
- 61', 2 - 2, Braken S. ⚽, Asante D. (A),
- 63', 3 - 2, Van Dessel S. ⚽,
- 71', El Kadiri I. ↓, El Allachi C. ↑,
- 71', Schoppema L. ↓, Symons K. ↑,
- 71', Kaninda N. ↓, de Jong F. ↑,
- 71', Eijken D. ↓, Kwint K. ↑,
- 74', Dicke F. 🟨,
- 76', Besselink R. ↓, Bultman S. ↑,
- 80', 3 - 3, Kwint K. ⚽, El Allachi C. (A),
- 85', Tran L. M. ↓, Francis S. ↑,
- 85', Braken S. ↓, Verheijen T. ↑,
- 88', Francis S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
MVV Maastricht
20.5% | Draw
20% | De Graafschap
59.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
MVV Maastricht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that MVV Maastricht's form might have worsened.De Graafschap has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting De Graafschap's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for MVV Maastricht, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (-8.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for De Graafschap, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
MVV Maastricht - De Graafschap Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.51 ↑
(3.38) |
4.65 ↑
(4) |
1.58 ↓
(1.85) |
7%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for MVV Maastricht - De Graafschap?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
De Graafschap will win
(13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): De Graafschap will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 1.
- Recent form of Maastricht has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- De Graafschap is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, De Graafschap is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in De Graafschap: Meerstadt J.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Maastricht: Tehubijuluw D.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 20:35. (average 1:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Maastricht won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 1:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has MVV Maastricht won against De Graafschap?
MVV Maastricht has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has De Graafschap won against MVV Maastricht?
De Graafschap has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between MVV Maastricht - De Graafschap were as follows:
22.08.2025
De Graafschap
-
MVV Maastricht
0:1
22.03.2025
De Graafschap
-
MVV Maastricht
0:0
08.11.2024
MVV Maastricht
-
De Graafschap
0:0
26.04.2024
De Graafschap
-
MVV Maastricht
3:0
24.09.2023
MVV Maastricht
-
De Graafschap
1:2
Latest results of MVV Maastricht
Latest results of De Graafschap
Dutch Eerste Divisie Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Den Haag ✔ | 35 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 82:34 | 48 | 83 |
| 2 | Cambuur ✔ | 35 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 71:43 | 28 | 74 |
| 3 | De Graafschap | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 68:53 | 15 | 59 |
| 4 | Willem II | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 52:40 | 12 | 59 |
| 5 | Almere City | 35 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 72:57 | 15 | 55 |
| 6 | Jong PSV | 35 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 63:59 | 4 | 53 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 61:53 | 8 | 52 |
| 8 | Roda | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 54:49 | 5 | 51 |
| 9 | Den Bosch | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 60:60 | 0 | 49 |
| 10 | Dordrecht | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 45:50 | -5 | 44 |
| 11 | Eindhoven FC | 35 | 13 | 5 | 17 | 49:63 | -14 | 44 |
| 12 | Venlo | 35 | 12 | 5 | 18 | 44:52 | -8 | 41 |
| 13 | FC Emmen | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 55:65 | -10 | 41 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 60:53 | 7 | 40 |
| 15 | Jong Utrecht | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 52:58 | -6 | 39 |
| 16 | Jong AZ | 35 | 11 | 4 | 20 | 59:71 | -12 | 37 |
| 17 | Maastricht | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 41:71 | -30 | 36 |
| 18 | Oss | 35 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 46:61 | -15 | 35 |
| 19 | Helmond | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 40:61 | -21 | 35 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 48:69 | -21 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Eredivisie
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Den Haag is Qualified for Eredivisie
Cambuur is Qualified for Eredivisie
