Result
3:1
27/09/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 6
- Referee: Buquet R. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Israel | 5 SPORT Israel |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.52 | 0.93 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (453/515) | 91% (516/570) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.52 | 0.93 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.78 | 0.83 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (453/515) | 91% (516/570) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (32/48) | 58% (26/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 85% (111/130) | 78% (113/145) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 12% (2/17) | 14% (3/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 0.48 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (7/16) | 87% (13/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 30 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.78 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.17 | -1.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', Kehrer T. 🟨,
- 21', Vanderson 🟨,
- 38', Kehrer T. 🟨,
- 40', 1 - 0, Bamba M. ⚽, Kouassi A. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Vanderson ↓, Diatta K. ↑,
- 46', Biereth M. ↓, Balogun F. ↑,
- 47', Karim D. 🟨,
- 48', Bamba M. 🟨,
- 63', Bamba M. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
- 63', Tosin A. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
- 65', Ilenikhena G. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
- 65', Minamino T. ↓, Idumbo S. ↑,
- 72', Karim D. ↓, Pagis P. ↑,
- 76', 2 - 0, Pagis P. ⚽, Soumano S. (A),
- 81', Coulibaly M. ↓, Cabral P. ↑,
- 82', 3 - 0, Pagis P. ⚽, Makengo J. (A),
- 85', Avom A. ↓, Cadiou N. ↑,
- 85', Le Bris T. ↓, Mvuka Mugisha J. ↑,
- 90+7', 3 - 1, Fati A. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Lorient
23.1% | Draw
24.3% | Monaco
52.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Monaco might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-4.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+7.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Monaco could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Lorient - Monaco Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.12 ↓
(4.93) |
3.99 ↓
(4.37) |
1.86 ↑
(1.61) |
3.1%
(5.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Lorient - Monaco?
Users Predictions:
Monaco will win
(25 of 30 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.99% – 96.67%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Monaco will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 0.
- Lorient is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Monaco has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Lorient may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Monaco is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N.
(Ankle Injury)
Fadiga B.
(Ankle Injury)
Katseris P.
(Thigh Injury)
Sanusi T.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Toure I.
(Knee Injury)
Yongwa D.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Monaco: Akliouche M.
(Injury)
Bamba A.
(Hamstring Injury)
Golovin A.
(Muscle Injury)
Hradecky L.
(Knee Injury)
Michal L.
(International duty)
Pogba P.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Zakaria D.
(Groin Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 19:33. (average 1.1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 1.1:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Lorient won against Monaco?
Lorient has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Monaco won against Lorient?
Monaco has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lorient - Monaco were as follows:
17.03.2024
Monaco
-
Lorient
2:2
17.09.2023
Lorient
-
Monaco
2:2
16.04.2023
Monaco
-
Lorient
3:1
11.01.2023
Lorient
-
Monaco
2:2
Latest results of Lorient
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13:5 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Marseille | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15:5 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14:7 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Lyon | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9:5 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Lens | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Lille | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14:10 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Paris FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Rennes | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:10 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Brest | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:11 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Lorient | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:16 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Nantes | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5:7 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5:10 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3:11 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Metz | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
