Freiburg vs Hamburger SV – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
2:1
10/01/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 16
  • Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 5
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 2
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT
bulgariaBulgariaPlay Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 6, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkSee, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
icelandIcelandViaplay
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN SPORTS MAX
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 2
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 7
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2, Voyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 4
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
2.840.64
Ball possession
60%40%
Total shots
2010
Shots on target
75
Big chances
41
Corner kicks
03
Passes
83% (429/514)76% (260/341)
Yellow cards
35
Red Cards
01
Expected goals (xG)
2.840.64
xG on target (xGOT)
2.351.73
Total shots
2010
Shots on target
75
Shots off target
75
Blocked shots
60
Shots inside the box
145
Shots outside the box
65
Hit the woodwork
10
Headed goals
01
Big chances
41
Corner kicks
03
Touches in opposition box
2313
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
10
Free kicks
1113
Passes
83% (429/514)76% (260/341)
Long passes
36% (20/55)38% (24/64)
Passes in final third
73% (119/164)44% (32/72)
Crosses
47% (7/15)23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
2.040.53
Throw ins
1513
Fouls
1311
Tackles
50% (6/12)40% (4/10)
Duels won
4341
Clearances
2322
Interceptions
76
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
55
xGOT faced
1.732.35
Goals prevented
0.730.35

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 4', Elfadli D. 🟨,
  • 39', Treu P. 🟨,
  • 43', Lienhart P. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Lienhart P. ↓, Jung A. ↑,
  • 49', 0 - 1, Vuskovic L. ⚽, Muheim M. (A),
  • 51', Elfadli D. 🟨,
  • 53', 1 - 1, Grifo V. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 57', Dompe J. ↓, Torunarigha J. ↑,
  • 63', Vuskovic L. 🟨,
  • 65', Holer L. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
  • 65', Grifo V. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
  • 77', Heuer Fernandes D. 🟨,
  • 78', Downs D. ↓, Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↑,
  • 78', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
  • 79', Vieira F. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
  • 79', Treu P. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
  • 83', 2 - 1, Matanovic I. ⚽, Beste J. (A),
  • 87', Polzin M. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
  • 90+4', Manzambi J. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
  • 90+7', Osterhage P. 🟨,
  • 90+12', Rossing-Lelesiit A. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Freiburg
53%		Draw
26.7%		Hamburger SV
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.7% 26.5% 20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3% 26.2% 20.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
    •

    Freiburg - Hamburger SV Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.79 ↓
    (1.8)    		 3.57 ↓
    (3.58)    		 4.67 ↑
    (4.57)    		 5.3%
    (5.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Freiburg - Hamburger SV?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Freiburg (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (50 of 59 users predict this - 84.75%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 75.58% – 93.92%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Freiburg will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 13).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 3.
    • Freiburg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Hamburg has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Recently, Hamburg has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Freiburg is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)
    • There will not play in Hamburg: Balde F. (Illness) Glatzel R. (Thigh Injury) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Philippe R. (Illness) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Soumahoro A. (Knee Injury) Suhonen A. (Illness)
    • There are questionable in Freiburg: Dinkci E. (Muscle Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Hamburg: Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 1.3:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Freiburg - Hamburger SV were as follows:
    30.10.2024 Freiburg - Hamburger SV 2:1
    13.01.2023 Freiburg - Hamburger SV 5:2
    Latest results of Freiburg
    20.12.2025 Wolfsburg - Freiburg 3:4 ✺
    14.12.2025 Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund 1:1 ✺
    11.12.2025 Freiburg - Red Bull Salzburg 1:0 ✺
    06.12.2025 Heidenheim - Freiburg 2:1 ✺
    03.12.2025 Freiburg - Darmstadt 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Hamburger SV
    20.12.2025 Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt 1:1 ✺
    13.12.2025 Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV 4:1 ✺
    07.12.2025 Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen 3:2 ✺
    03.12.2025 Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel 1:2 ✺
    30.11.2025 Hamburger SV - Stuttgart 2:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich24203188:236563
    2Dortmund24157251:252652
    3Hoffenheim24144649:311846
    4Stuttgart24144648:321646
    5RB Leipzig24135646:331344
    6Bayer Leverkusen23124744:291540
    7Eintracht Frankfurt2497848:49-134
    8Freiburg2496934:39-533
    9Augsburg24941130:41-1131
    10Union Berlin24771029:38-928
    11Hamburger SV2368926:34-826
    12B. Monchengladbach24671127:39-1225
    13FC Koln24661233:41-824
    14Mainz24581127:39-1223
    15St. Pauli24651323:40-1723
    16Werder Bremen24571225:44-1922
    17Wolfsburg24551433:53-2020
    18Heidenheim24351622:53-3114

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
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          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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