Result
03/05/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 14
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 6 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1 |
 United-arab-emirates | Dubai Sports 1 |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Chances of winning
São Paulo
46.8% | Draw
28.8% | Bahia
24.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
São Paulo - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.03 ↓
(2.17) |
3.28 ↑
(3.05) |
3.85 ↑
(3.35) |
5.7%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 50.6% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4.
- São Paulo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Bahia has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura
(Broken rib)
Marcos Antonio
(Hamstring Injury)
Pablo Maia
(Broken nose)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Bahia: Ronaldo Strada
(Shoulder Injury)
Ruan Pablo
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Diaz E.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:14. (average 1.2:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.1:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Bahia?
São Paulo has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against São Paulo?
Bahia has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Bahia were as follows:
25.10.2025
São Paulo
-
Bahia
2:0
31.05.2025
Bahia
-
São Paulo
2:1
05.11.2024
Bahia
-
São Paulo
0:3
30.06.2024
São Paulo
-
Bahia
3:1
29.11.2023
Bahia
-
São Paulo
0:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 24:10 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23:16 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:11 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Bahia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Vitoria | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:15 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25:26 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 17 |
| 13 | Vasco | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 | Corinthians | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 | Santos | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Internacional | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 14 |
| 18 | Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 11 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 9 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12:24 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
