Result
2:1
14/02/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 22
- Referee: Macedo C. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 1.01 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (359/429) | 79% (304/383) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 1.01 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.16 | 1.33 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (359/429) | 79% (304/383) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (12/27) | 45% (31/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (108/151) | 63% (27/43) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (8/30) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 0.54 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (11/22) | 47% (9/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.33 | 3.16 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.33 | 1.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 10', 0 - 1, Moreira P. ⚽, Marcus A. (A),
- 16', Abascal R. ↓, Nobrega M. ↑,
- 24', Samu 🟨,
- 34', Otavio 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Gustavo ↓, Oliveira N. ↑,
- 46', Camara O. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
- 56', Pinto L. 🟨,
- 64', 1 - 1, Thiago Balieiro ⚽,
- 65', Otavio ↓, Scholze M. ↑,
- 65', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, Antonetti L. ↑,
- 65', Lekovic S. ↓, Robinho ↑,
- 68', 2 - 1, Sousa D. ⚽, Mendes J. II. (A),
- 69', Abascal R. 🟨,
- 74', Strata T. ↓, Maga ↑,
- 75', Doue G. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
- 83', Jovane ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
- 89', Charles Silva 🟨,
- 90+1', Bernardo Schappo 🟨,
- 90+3', Saviolo N. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vitoria Guimarães
59.6% | Draw
25.3% | Estrela da Amadora
15.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.6 ↓
(1.69) |
3.74 ↑
(3.6) |
6.22 ↑
(5.07) |
5.4%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Guimarães (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Guimarães (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Vitoria Guimarães will win
(12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vitoria Guimarães will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 6 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 11).
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Guimarães may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Guimarães is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Estrela: Dudu
(Shoulder Injury)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Jansson K.
(Injury)
Robinho
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 2:0.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Estrela da Amadora?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Estrela da Amadora has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
14.09.2025
Estrela da Amadora
-
Vitoria Guimarães
0:2
27.10.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Vitoria Guimarães
2:2
21.01.2024
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Estrela da Amadora
3:0
13.08.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Vitoria Guimarães
0:1
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
