Result
4:2
24/01/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 19
- Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 2.04 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (390/451) | 82% (297/363) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 2.04 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.13 | 1.14 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (390/451) | 82% (297/363) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (21/45) | 44% (22/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (80/112) | 66% (69/104) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (5/14) | 43% (9/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 1.86 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (5/10) | 56% (9/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.14 | 2.13 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.86 | -1.87 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 22', Ndoye A. 🟨,
- 26', Guitane R. 🟨,
- 27', 0 - 1, Samu ⚽, Nogueira G. (A),
- 29', 1 - 1, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Guitane R. (A),
- 33', Lominadze N. 🟨,
- 34', 1 - 2, Mitrovic M. ⚽,
- 36', Nogueira G. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 46', Lominadze N. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
- 56', 2 - 2, Marques A. ⚽, Guitane R. (A),
- 58', Nogueira G. ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
- 58', Saviolo N. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
- 64', Mendes J. II. 🟨,
- 65', 3 - 2, Marques A. ⚽, Holsgrove J. (A),
- 72', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
- 72', Samu ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
- 73', Amaral P. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
- 73', Sanchez R. ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
- 78', Marques A. ↓, Xeka ↑,
- 78', 4 - 2, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Pizzi (A),
- 82', Camara O. ↓, Opara E. ↑,
- 90+1', Guitane R. ↓, Ferro ↑,
Chances of winning
Estoril Praia
39.1% | Draw
28.1% | Vitoria Guimarães
32.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.43 ↓
(2.5) |
3.34 ↑
(3.25) |
2.88 ↑
(2.85) |
5.8%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Guimarães will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 10.6% – 60.8%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 40%). Guimarães (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Estoril (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Guimarães (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 1.
- Estoril has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Guimarães is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Estoril: Lacximicant A.
(Inactive)
Xeka
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Guimarães: Arcanjo T.
(Red Card)
Beni
(Yellow Cards)
Oliveira N.
(Red Card)
Rivas Viondi O.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Estoril: Israelov O.
(Thigh Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 21:30. (average 1.1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.8:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Estoril Praia has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Estoril Praia?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães were as follows:
16.08.2025
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Estoril Praia
3:2
26.01.2025
Estoril Praia
-
Vitoria Guimarães
1:0
18.08.2024
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Estoril Praia
1:0
02.03.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Vitoria Guimarães
1:3
01.10.2023
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Estoril Praia
3:2
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 59:14 | 45 | 76 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 73:17 | 56 | 71 |
| 3 | Benfica | 29 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 61:18 | 43 | 69 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 55:27 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 36:25 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 44:30 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | Estoril | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 51:50 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 36 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
| 10 | Alverca | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 32:47 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 31:48 | -17 | 33 |
| 12 | Arouca | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 37:58 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 26:37 | -11 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33:48 | -15 | 28 |
| 15 | Nacional | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 31:41 | -10 | 25 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 28:52 | -24 | 25 |
| 17 | Tondela | 28 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 21:46 | -25 | 21 |
| 18 | AFS | 29 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 19:62 | -43 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
