Result
3:1
17/01/2026 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 19
- Referee: Higler D. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Canada | Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Hong-kong | myTV SUPER |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 3 North |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | TV Start |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 3 |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 0.61 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (306/389) | 79% (334/422) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 0.61 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.48 | 0.77 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (306/389) | 79% (334/422) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (26/57) | 38% (19/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (54/89) | 71% (90/127) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 8% (1/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 0.94 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (13/17) | 56% (10/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 34 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.77 | 2.48 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.23 | -0.52 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 7', 1 - 0, Shoretire S. ⚽, Namli Y. (A),
- 23', Penetra 🟨,
- 26', 2 - 0, Garcia MacNulty A. ⚽, Namli Y. (A),
- 43', Mijnans S. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Jensen I. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
- 46', Buurmeester Z. ↓, Monteiro J. ↑,
- 55', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
- 63', Graves S. ↓, Aertssen O. ↑,
- 67', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
- 67', Penetra ↓, Hornkamp J. ↑,
- 71', Namli Y. ↓, de Rooij K. ↑,
- 74', 2 - 1, Koopmeiners P. ⚽,
- 82', Weslley Patati ↓, Bouziane W. ↑,
- 90+2', Oosting T. ↓, Fichtinger N. ↑,
- 90+4', 3 - 1, Shoretire S. ⚽, Floranus S. (A),
- 90+5', Shoretire S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Zwolle
16.6% | Draw
20.5% | AZ Alkmaar
62.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Zwolle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AZ Alkmaar's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.69 ↑
(4.47) |
4.57 ↑
(3.99) |
1.5 ↓
(1.68) |
6.1%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Zwolle will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). AZ will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 35.4% – 82.2%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +1 - AZ (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.5 - Zwolle (5.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.25 - AZ (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Zwolle (votes: 1 - 14.3%). AZ (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zwolle won 0.
- Recent form of Zwolle has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- AZ is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Zwolle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, AZ is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Zwolle: Lagsir S.
(Inactive)
Schendelaar J.
(Injury)
Velanas O.
(Ankle Injury)
Voute D.
(Inactive)
van der Haar D.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in AZ: Clasie J.
(Ankle Injury)
Kasius D.
(Injury)
Meerdink M.
(Groin Injury)
- There are questionable in Zwolle: Graves S.
(Illness)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zwolle won 1 match, drew 7 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 17:47. (average 0.9:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Zwolle won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.8:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Zwolle won against AZ Alkmaar?
Zwolle has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AZ Alkmaar won against Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar were as follows:
03.12.2025
Zwolle
-
AZ Alkmaar
1:3
24.09.2025
AZ Alkmaar
-
Zwolle
2:2
09.02.2025
AZ Alkmaar
-
Zwolle
2:0
20.09.2024
Zwolle
-
AZ Alkmaar
1:2
20.01.2024
AZ Alkmaar
-
Zwolle
2:2
Latest results of AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV ✔ | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 84:40 | 44 | 74 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 62:41 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 72:48 | 24 | 54 |
| 4 | Twente | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 51:32 | 19 | 53 |
| 5 | Ajax | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 57:37 | 20 | 51 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52:45 | 7 | 48 |
| 7 | Utrecht | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 49:36 | 13 | 44 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 53:50 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | Groningen | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42:37 | 5 | 42 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 35:49 | -14 | 42 |
| 11 | G.A. Eagles | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 50:45 | 5 | 36 |
| 12 | Sittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 44:55 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 40:60 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:50 | -19 | 28 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:51 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Telstar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 39:52 | -13 | 27 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 30:51 | -21 | 25 |
| 18 | Heracles | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 34:77 | -43 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
Clinched Spots for Teams
PSV is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
