Result
2:2
27/01/2026 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 3
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 1.07 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 68% | 32% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (405/476) | 66% (147/223) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 1.07 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 1.58 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 13 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 14 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (405/476) | 66% (147/223) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (16/43) | 31% (19/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 82% (213/260) | 36% (21/58) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (7/20) | 0% (0/3) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.56 | 0.13 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 27 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 92% (11/12) | 60% (6/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 32 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.58 | 0.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.42 | -1.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 21', 1 - 0, Ortiz J. ⚽, Chaverra L. (A),
- 26', 1 - 1, Parra Osorio A. ⚽,
- 31', 1 - 2, Parra Osorio A. ⚽,
- 35', Hurtado Torres Y. D. 🟥,
- 39', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Arrieta C. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Chaverra L. ↓, Mancilla G. ↑,
- 46', Florez K. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
- 46', Nieto J. ↓, Ricardo E. ↑,
- 58', Ricardo E. 🟥,
- 60', Loboa H. ↓, Larrosa E. ↑,
- 61', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Guzman S. ↑,
- 62', Mantilla K. 🟨,
- 67', Moreno D. 🟨,
- 68', Berrio L. ↓, Catano D. ↑,
- 69', 2 - 2, Larrosa E. ⚽, Chaverra F. (A),
- 78', Mantilla K. ↓, Davila A. ↑,
- 78', Catano D. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
- 87', Lopez E. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/9be49h5x
Chances of winning
Independiente Medellín
42% | Draw
32.1% | Deportes Tolima
25.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.21 ↑
(1.93) |
2.91 ↓
(3.3) |
3.59 ↓
(3.88) |
7.5%
(8.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 3.
- Ind Medellín is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Deportes Tolima's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Ind Medellín might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.3:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.9:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Deportes Tolima?
Independiente Medellín has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Deportes Tolima won against Independiente Medellín?
Deportes Tolima has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima were as follows:
27.09.2025
Deportes Tolima
-
Independiente Medellín
2:3
15.06.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Deportes Tolima
2:1
04.06.2025
Deportes Tolima
-
Independiente Medellín
1:3
15.05.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Deportes Tolima
0:1
22.09.2024
Independiente Medellín
-
Deportes Tolima
0:1
Latest results of Independiente Medellín
Latest results of Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional ✔ | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 30:11 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:17 | 4 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24:13 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Once Caldas | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 26:19 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Junior | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | America De Cali | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19:12 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Dep. Cali | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17:13 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Aguilas | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 22 |
| 9 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18:20 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25:17 | 8 | 21 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 20 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:14 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Santa Fe | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:19 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Ind. Medellin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19:19 | 0 | 17 |
| 15 | Fortaleza | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21:27 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Alianza | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10:22 | -12 | 15 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14:28 | -14 | 14 |
| 19 | Chico | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11:21 | -10 | 11 |
| 20 | Pereira | 15 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 14:29 | -15 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
