Result
1:3
05/03/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 21
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Egypt | Kora Plus |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.00 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 31% | 69% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 60% (128/213) | 80% (398/496) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.00 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
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| 0.71 | 1.74 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
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| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
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| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
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| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
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| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
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| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 60% (128/213) | 80% (398/496) |
| Long passes |
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| 29% (12/42) | 41% (33/80) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 44% (37/85) | 65% (75/115) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (4/15) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 1.58 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 22 |
| Fouls |
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| 13 | 13 |
| Tackles |
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| 80% (12/15) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
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| 39 | 41 |
| Clearances |
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| 34 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
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| 8 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
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| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.74 | 0.71 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.26 | -0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 9', Fouad K. ↓, Eid A. ↑,
- 35', 0 - 1, Trezeguet ⚽, Ashour E. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Ojera J. 🟨,
- 59', Abdellah I. ↓, Al Kadi I. ↑,
- 65', Zizo ↓, Ben Romdhane M. ↑,
- 65', Dieng A. ↓, Bencharki A. ↑,
- 71', 0 - 2, Ashour E. ⚽, Bencharki A. (A),
- 73', Hussein H. ↓, Kahraba ↑,
- 73', Ouled Behi A. ↓, Naguib S. ↑,
- 74', Hawash A. ↓, Salim M. ↑,
- 79', Ojera J. ↓, Abdelnasser M. ↑,
- 81', Attia M. ↓, Kouka A. ↑,
- 81', Trezeguet ↓, El Shahat H. ↑,
- 82', Salim M. 🟨,
- 85', 1 - 2, Salim M. ⚽, Gamal M. (A),
- 90+6', 1 - 3, El Shahat H. ⚽,
- 90+9', Gamal M. 🟥,
Chances of winning
El Mokawloon El Arab
13% | Draw
26.2% | Al Ahly Cairo
60.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Mokawloon El Arab has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)Al Ahly Cairo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Mokawloon El Arab than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Ahly Cairo than the current prediction. (+2.7%)
El Mokawloon El Arab - Al Ahly Cairo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
7.1 ↑
(6.8) |
3.51 ↓
(3.8) |
1.52 ↑
(1.5) |
8.6%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for El Mokawloon El Arab - Al Ahly Cairo?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Al Ahly will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al Ahly: 57.1% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +1.5 - El Mokawloon (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Al Ahly Cairo will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. El Mokawloon (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Al Ahly (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Premier League (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Championship Group: )).
- El Mokawloon is Premier League (Relegation Group )
- Al Ahly is Qualified for Premier League (Championship Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Mokawloon won 1.
- El Mokawloon has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Al Ahly is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Al Ahly may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Al Ahly has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Al Ahly is the undeniable favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Mokawloon won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 14:42. (average 0.7:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, El Mokawloon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 3:21. (average 0.3:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has El Mokawloon El Arab won against Al Ahly Cairo?
El Mokawloon El Arab has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Al Ahly Cairo won against El Mokawloon El Arab?
Al Ahly Cairo has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between El Mokawloon El Arab - Al Ahly Cairo were as follows:
30.12.2025
Al Ahly Cairo
-
El Mokawloon El Arab
0:3
04.08.2024
Al Ahly Cairo
-
El Mokawloon El Arab
4:0
04.11.2023
El Mokawloon El Arab
-
Al Ahly Cairo
1:2
16.07.2023
El Mokawloon El Arab
-
Al Ahly Cairo
1:4
07.03.2023
Al Ahly Cairo
-
El Mokawloon El Arab
2:1
Latest results of El Mokawloon El Arab
Latest results of Al Ahly Cairo
Egyptian Premier League Table
Relegation Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 8 | ZED | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 32 |
| 9 | Wadi Degla | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 30 |
| 10 | El Gouna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 29 |
| 11 | National Bank Egypt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 27 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 26 |
| 13 | Modern Sport | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 24 |
| 14 | El Gaish | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 22 |
| 15 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 21 |
| 16 | Ghazl El Mahallah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 20 |
| 17 | Arab Contractors | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 19 |
| 18 | Haras El Hodood | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 18 |
| 19 | Kahrabaa Ismailia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 17 |
| 20 | Pharco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 16 |
| 21 | El Ismaily | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 12 |
Relegation ~ Division 2 A
