Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

East End Park (Dunfermline).

Championship - Round 5
Referee: McFarlane D. (Sco)
Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Pars TV Arabic
United-kingdom	Ayr United Media

Match Stats


Ball Possession
48%	52%
Total shots
7	6
Shots on target
3	2
Corner Kicks
6	3
Yellow Cards
4	4
Red Cards
1	1
Total shots
7	6
Shots on target
3	2
Shots off target
4	4
Corner Kicks
6	3

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, McKenzie M. ⚽,
31', Chilokoa-Mullen J. 🟨,
41', Dick L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Otoo E. ↓, Fraser R. ↑,
47', Chilokoa-Mullen J. 🟨,
52', McKenzie M. 🟨,
57', Gilmour C. 🟨,
58', Watret D. 🟨,
63', MacLeod R. ↓, Ritchie-Hosler K. ↑,
63', Gilmour C. ↓, Amade A. ↑,
65', McKenzie M. ↓, Oakley G. ↑,
65', Murphy J. ↓, Rus M. ↑,
75', McMann S. ↓, Dowds A. ↑,
83', Walker E. ↓, Thomas D. ↑,
84', Tod J. ↓, Kane Ch. ↑,
84', Caceres J. ↓, Todd M. ↑,
86', Amade A. 🟨,
90+2', Watret D. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Dunfermline Athletic
34.6%

Draw
30.2%

Ayr United
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

28.1%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

27.7%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunfermline Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dunfermline Athletic's form might have worsened.

Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ayr United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dunfermline Athletic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ayr United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.12)	3.25 ↓ (3.28)	2.73 ↓ (3.25)	1.7% (8.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United?

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Dunfermline will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 and 8).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dunfermline won 0.
Dunfermline has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ayr's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Dunfermline may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dunfermline won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Dunfermline won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.1:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Dunfermline Athletic won against Ayr United?

Dunfermline Athletic has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ayr United won against Dunfermline Athletic?

Ayr United has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United were as follows:

29.03.2025 Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic 3:0

14.01.2025 Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United 0:2

23.11.2024 Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic 1:0

31.08.2024 Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United 1:1

03.05.2024 Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic 3:3

Latest results of Dunfermline Athletic

19.09.2025 St. Johnstone - Dunfermline Athletic 2:1 ✺

13.09.2025 Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic 0:5 ✺

30.08.2025 Dunfermline Athletic - Ross County 2:2 ✺

22.08.2025 Raith Rovers - Dunfermline Athletic 2:0 ✺

09.08.2025 Dunfermline Athletic - Airdrieonians 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Ayr United

13.09.2025 Ayr United - Ross County 1:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Ayr United - Queens Park 1:1 ✺

23.08.2025 Greenock Morton - Ayr United 2:2 ✺

16.08.2025 Partick Thistle - Ayr United 2:0 ✺

09.08.2025 Ayr United - Raith Rovers 0:1 ✺

Scottish Football Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	St Johnstone	11	7	3	1	19:8	11	24
2	Partick Thistle	11	7	3	1	18:13	5	24
3	Arbroath	11	5	3	3	16:18	-2	18
4	Ayr	11	4	5	2	15:11	4	17
5	Dunfermline	11	4	3	4	16:9	7	15
6	Raith	11	4	2	5	10:12	-2	14
7	Morton	11	1	8	2	10:11	-1	11
8	Queen's Park	11	1	6	4	8:14	-6	9
9	Ross County	11	1	5	5	11:15	-4	8
10	Airdrieonians	11	0	4	7	8:20	-12	4

      Promotion ~ Premiership
      Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Semi~finals)
      Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Quarter~finals)
      Championship (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ League One