Result
1:2
07/03/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 26
- Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.67 | 1.70 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (297/401) | 76% (299/394) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.67 | 1.70 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 2.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 48 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (297/401) | 76% (299/394) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (34/66) | 36% (23/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 59% (76/129) | 58% (57/98) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (7/26) | 0% (0/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 1.34 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 30 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (10/20) | 46% (6/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 49 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.15 | 1.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.15 | 0.60 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 38', 0 - 1, Brouwers L. ⚽, Nordas L. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 65', Nordas L. ↓, Vente D. ↑,
- 67', 0 - 2, van Overeem J. ⚽,
- 72', Janssen S. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
- 72', Hartjes L. ↓, Bergraaf J. ↑,
- 74', 1 - 2, Naujoks N. (Penalty Awarded),
- 75', Zagaritis V. ↓, Petrov H. ↑,
- 78', Petrov H. 🟨,
- 81', Jonathans M. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
- 86', Trenskow J. ↓, Hopland N. ↑,
- 89', Naujoks N. 🟨,
- 90', Yegoian I. ↓, Wlodarczyk S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Excelsior
33% | Draw
25.4% | Heerenveen
41.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Excelsior - Heerenveen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.88 ↑
(2.88) |
3.75 ↑
(3.48) |
2.29
(2.29) |
5.1%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Excelsior - Heerenveen?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Heerenveen will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Heerenveen will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2.
- Recent form of Excelsior has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Heerenveen has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Excelsior: Hansson E.
(Thigh Injury)
Nadje C.
(Inactive)
Raatsie C.
(Shoulder Injury)
Zagre A.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Heerenveen: Smans L.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 26:27. (average 1.4:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 2:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Heerenveen?
Excelsior has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Heerenveen won against Excelsior?
Heerenveen has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Excelsior - Heerenveen were as follows:
04.10.2025
Heerenveen
-
Excelsior
2:1
19.01.2024
Excelsior
-
Heerenveen
3:0
23.09.2023
Heerenveen
-
Excelsior
0:3
13.05.2023
Heerenveen
-
Excelsior
0:0
22.12.2022
Heerenveen
-
Excelsior
1:0
Latest results of Excelsior
Latest results of Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV ✔ | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 84:40 | 44 | 74 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 62:41 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 72:48 | 24 | 54 |
| 4 | Twente | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 51:32 | 19 | 53 |
| 5 | Ajax | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 57:37 | 20 | 51 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52:45 | 7 | 48 |
| 7 | Utrecht | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 49:36 | 13 | 44 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 53:50 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | Groningen | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42:37 | 5 | 42 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 35:49 | -14 | 42 |
| 11 | G.A. Eagles | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 50:45 | 5 | 36 |
| 12 | Sittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 44:55 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 40:60 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:50 | -19 | 28 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:51 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Telstar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 39:52 | -13 | 27 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 30:51 | -21 | 25 |
| 18 | Heracles | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 34:77 | -43 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
Clinched Spots for Teams
PSV is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
