Result
1:0
19/09/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 9
- Referee: Camacho Peregrina J. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Claro Sports, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
 Venezuela | Inter |
 World | Pluto TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.69 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (259/349) | 81% (318/393) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.69 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (259/349) | 81% (318/393) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (22/55) | 51% (27/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (76/121) | 67% (62/93) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (3/11) | 29% (5/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 0.72 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 28 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (12/14) | 57% (12/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.24 | 0.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.24 | 0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 45+1', 1 - 0, Moyano F. (Own goal),
- 45+7', Marin R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Fedorco J. ↓, Navarro E. ↑,
- 60', Sanchez R. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
- 60', Palavecino A. ↓, Cortez R. ↑,
- 67', Castillo R. ↓, Garnica B. ↑,
- 67', Gamarra P. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
- 77', Perez P. ↓, Jacob T. ↑,
- 78', Calderon C. ↓, Rossano F. ↑,
- 80', Gonzalez O. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
- 80', Marin R. ↓, Lozano E. ↑,
- 87', De Buen D. ↓, Andrade A. ↑,
- 89', Rivas J. ↓, Organista A. ↑,
- 90+4', Rojas J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Necaxa
53.7% | Draw
25.4% | Puebla
20.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Necaxa - Puebla Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.78 ↓
(1.79) |
3.71 ↑
(3.3) |
4.49 ↑
(4) |
5.3%
(11.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Necaxa - Puebla?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Necaxa will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 18).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 3.
- Necaxa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Puebla is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Necaxa is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Necaxa: Lara E.
(Elbow Injury)
- There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Puebla: Guerra E.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:20. (average 1.3:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Necaxa won against Puebla?
Necaxa has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Puebla won against Necaxa?
Puebla has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Necaxa - Puebla were as follows:
18.04.2025
Puebla
-
Necaxa
0:1
13.07.2024
Necaxa
-
Puebla
4:1
19.01.2024
Puebla
-
Necaxa
1:2
08.10.2023
Necaxa
-
Puebla
1:2
14.04.2023
Necaxa
-
Puebla
1:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17:9 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Toluca | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11:2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | UNAM Pumas | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 15:7 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 13 |
| 8 | Club America | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:9 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7:7 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 11:15 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Puebla | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Juarez | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11:13 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8:14 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10:25 | -15 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
