Result
0:4
01/12/2025 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 12
- Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Kuwait | KTV Sport |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.06 | 2.92 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 16% | 84% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (117/174) | 94% (875/930) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.06 | 2.92 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.02 | 1.88 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 0 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 0 | 40 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (117/174) | 94% (875/930) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (15/42) | 69% (31/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 33% (7/21) | 87% (234/269) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.01 | 2.27 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (5/8) | 50% (3/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 26 | 31 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.88 | 0.02 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.12 | 0.02 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 3)
- 13', Fontan J. 🟨,
- 15', Fontan J. 🟨,
- 20', Sola A. ↓, Fayed O. ↑,
- 25', Alex Pinto 🟨,
- 26', Horta R. (Pen),
- 26', 0 - 1, Mantl N. (Own goal),
- 31', 0 - 2, Horta R. ⚽, Gomez V. (A),
- 45+2', 0 - 3, Alex Pinto (Own goal),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Simao D. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
- 46', Lee H. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 46', Alex Pinto ↓, Dante A. ↑,
- 60', Gorby ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
- 60', Gomez V. ↓, Lelo L. ↑,
- 60', Horta R. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
- 71', 0 - 4, Lagerbielke G. ⚽, Rodrigues D. (A),
- 72', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,
- 73', Nandin D. ↓, Trezza A. ↑,
- 78', Grillitsch F. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
- 84', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
Chances of winning
Arouca
14.2% | Draw
21.9% | Braga
63.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
Arouca - Braga Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.52 ↑
(5.33) |
4.36 ↑
(4.1) |
1.49 ↓
(1.6) |
5.5%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Arouca - Braga?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Braga will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 62.1% – 93.5%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +1.25 - Arouca (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Arouca (2.06) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Braga will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Braga (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1.
- Recent form of Arouca has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Braga has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Arouca has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Braga is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
Rocha M.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Braga: Noro J.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Zalazar R.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 12:36. (average 0.6:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:17. (average 0.4:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Braga?
Arouca has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Arouca?
Braga has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Braga were as follows:
29.03.2025
Braga
-
Arouca
2:1
03.11.2024
Arouca
-
Braga
1:2
06.04.2024
Braga
-
Arouca
0:3
12.11.2023
Arouca
-
Braga
0:1
19.02.2023
Braga
-
Arouca
2:0
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
