Result
3:2
06/04/2026 at 13:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 28
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.98 | 1.12 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (344/419) | 83% (404/487) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.98 | 1.12 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.31 | 0.46 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (344/419) | 83% (404/487) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (27/64) | 35% (15/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (59/99) | 67% (65/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 36% (5/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.00 | 1.05 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 13% (2/16) | 60% (6/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.46 | 2.31 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.54 | -0.69 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 3', 0 - 1, Xeka ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
- 13', 1 - 1, Barbero I. ⚽, Djouahra N. (A),
- 23', Holsgrove J. 🟨,
- 32', 1 - 2, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Lacximicant A. (A),
- 45+2', 2 - 2, Fontan J. ⚽, Barbero I. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 55', 3 - 2, Gozalbez P. ⚽, Tiago Esgaio (A),
- 56', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
- 65', Xeka ↓, Marques A. ↑,
- 65', Carvalho J. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
- 65', Amaral P. ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
- 71', Lacximicant A. 🟨,
- 74', Lacximicant A. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
- 77', Gozalbez P. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 83', Barbero I. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
- 83', Fukui T. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 90', Djouahra N. ↓, Mayulu F. ↑,
- 90', Lee H. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
- 90+1', De Arruabarrena I. 🟨,
- 90+7', Puche 🟨,
Chances of winning
Arouca
38.8% | Draw
26.9% | Estoril Praia
34.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
Arouca - Estoril Praia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.45 ↓
(2.52) |
3.51 ↑
(3.47) |
2.77 ↑
(2.67) |
5.5%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Arouca - Estoril Praia?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Estoril will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 2.5% – 64.1%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Estoril: Boma K.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Lee H.
(Injury)
Nandin D.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Estoril Praia?
Arouca has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Arouca?
Estoril Praia has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Estoril Praia were as follows:
07.11.2025
Estoril Praia
-
Arouca
4:3
26.10.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Arouca
4:1
20.01.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Arouca
1:2
13.08.2023
Arouca
-
Estoril Praia
4:3
15.05.2023
Estoril Praia
-
Arouca
2:0
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
