Result
1:0
01/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 25
- Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.21 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (180/247) | 88% (466/532) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.21 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 9 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (180/247) | 88% (466/532) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (23/52) | 54% (26/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 46% (37/81) | 80% (138/173) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (3/8) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.85 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (9/18) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.04 | 1.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Sene M. K. ↓, Gilbert A. ↑,
- 59', Elder C. 🟨,
- 59', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
- 59', Brewster R. ↓, Brereton Diaz B. ↑,
- 70', 1 - 0, Clark B. ⚽, Salvesen L. (A),
- 73', Salvesen L. 🟨,
- 76', Brittain C. ↓, Silvera S. ↑,
- 77', Morris A. ↓, Nypan S. ↑,
- 78', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
- 84', Gilbert A. 🟨,
- 87', Bangura A. ↓, Browne A. ↑,
- 88', Conway T. ↓, Hamilton M. ↑,
- 90+4', Targett M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Derby County
31% | Draw
28.9% | Middlesbrough
40% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
Derby County - Middlesbrough Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.02 ↑
(2.94) |
3.25 ↓
(3.3) |
2.37 ↓
(2.41) |
6.1%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Derby County - Middlesbrough?
Users Predictions:
25 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 4 - 16%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 12 - 48%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 36%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 28.4% – 67.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 2 - 50%). Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Hamstring Injury)
Morris C.
(Ankle Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Middlesbrough: Lenihan D.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
McGree R.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Edmundson G.
(Injury)
Jones A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 1.1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Middlesbrough?
Derby County has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Middlesbrough won against Derby County?
Middlesbrough has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Middlesbrough were as follows:
29.11.2025
Middlesbrough
-
Derby County
2:1
01.03.2025
Middlesbrough
-
Derby County
1:0
17.08.2024
Derby County
-
Middlesbrough
1:0
Latest results of Derby County
Latest results of Middlesbrough
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 72:38 | 34 | 71 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 54:35 | 19 | 66 |
| 3 | Millwall | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 47:40 | 7 | 62 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 59:34 | 25 | 60 |
| 5 | Hull | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 56:48 | 8 | 60 |
| 6 | Wrexham | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 54:45 | 9 | 57 |
| 7 | Southampton | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 57:46 | 11 | 53 |
| 8 | Derby | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 52:46 | 6 | 51 |
| 9 | Watford | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 45:41 | 4 | 51 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 35 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 48:44 | 4 | 50 |
| 11 | Preston | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 41:40 | 1 | 49 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 46:46 | 0 | 49 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 35 | 15 | 3 | 17 | 50:48 | 2 | 48 |
| 14 | Stoke | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 39:34 | 5 | 47 |
| 15 | QPR | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 46:54 | -8 | 47 |
| 16 | Swansea | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 40:43 | -3 | 46 |
| 17 | Norwich | 35 | 13 | 6 | 16 | 47:44 | 3 | 45 |
| 18 | Charlton | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 33:44 | -11 | 41 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 34:44 | -10 | 39 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 33:46 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | West Brom | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 34:52 | -18 | 35 |
| 22 | Leicester | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 47:56 | -9 | 34 |
| 23 | Oxford Utd | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 31:47 | -16 | 32 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 35 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 21:71 | -50 | -7 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
