Result
2:0
28/02/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 8
- Referee: Garcia O. M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, Fox Sports |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 0.66 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (279/353) | 82% (337/410) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 0.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 0.26 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (279/353) | 82% (337/410) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (31/71) | 51% (24/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (67/104) | 69% (73/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 50% (3/6) | 13% (2/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.77 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (16/24) | 68% (15/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.26 | 1.71 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.26 | -0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Gallardo J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 13', Romero F. 🟨,
- 16', 2 - 0, Diaz J. ⚽, Paulinho (A),
- 40', Romo L. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
- 45+7', Barbosa D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Simon S. ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
- 46', Castillo J. ↓, Sandoval S. ↑,
- 46', Alvarez E. ↓, Sepulveda A. ↑,
- 46', Ledezma R. ↓, Camberos H. ↑,
- 51', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 53', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
- 60', Gonzalez A. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
- 64', Aguirre D. 🟨,
- 67', Sepulveda A. 🟨,
- 71', Diaz J. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 75', Angulo J. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
- 90+2', Ruiz M. 🟨,
- 90+3', Gallardo J. ↓, Luan ↑,
- 90+4', Ruiz M. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toluca
45.5% | Draw
28.2% | Chivas Guadalajara
26.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.07 ↑
(1.99) |
3.32 ↑
(3.32) |
3.55 ↑
(3.45) |
6.5%
(9.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Guadalajara will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 45% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Guadalajara (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- Guadalajara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Toluca might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Toluca: Castro N.
(Injury)
Helinho
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Guadalajara: Perez J.
(Thigh Injury)
Romo L.
(Thigh Injury)
Sepulveda L.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Vega A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 11 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Chivas Guadalajara?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Chivas Guadalajara won against Toluca?
Chivas Guadalajara has won 2 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara were as follows:
20.09.2025
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
0:3
15.02.2025
Toluca
-
Chivas Guadalajara
2:1
06.07.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
0:0
11.05.2024
Toluca
-
Chivas Guadalajara
0:0
08.05.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Toluca
1:0
Latest results of Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15:8 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Toluca | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11:2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | UNAM Pumas | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 15:7 | 8 | 16 |
| 5 | Pachuca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9:6 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 13 |
| 8 | Club America | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:9 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7:7 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Puebla | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Juarez | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11:13 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8:14 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9:23 | -14 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
