Derby County vs Leeds United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English FA Cup
Result
1:3
11/01/2026 at 07:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • FA Cup - 1/32-finals
  • Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.422.58
Ball possession
34%66%
Total shots
722
Shots on target
211
Big chances
15
Corner kicks
55
Passes
67% (175/262)87% (441/507)
Yellow cards
11
Expected goals (xG)
0.422.58
xG on target (xGOT)
0.993.04
Total shots
722
Shots on target
211
Shots off target
46
Blocked shots
15
Shots inside the box
713
Shots outside the box
09
Hit the woodwork
01
Big chances
15
Corner kicks
55
Touches in opposition box
1538
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
03
Free kicks
816
Passes
67% (175/262)87% (441/507)
Long passes
28% (17/61)60% (28/47)
Passes in final third
44% (34/77)81% (100/123)
Crosses
27% (3/11)12% (3/26)
Expected assists (xA)
0.361.21
Throw ins
1719
Fouls
168
Tackles
65% (11/17)55% (6/11)
Duels won
5052
Clearances
2613
Interceptions
58
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
81
xGOT faced
3.040.99
Goals prevented
0.04-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', Fraulo O. 🟨,
  • 33', Piroe J. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 35', 1 - 0, Brereton Diaz B. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 3)
  • 46', Fraulo O. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
  • 46', Bornauw S. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
  • 55', 1 - 1, Gnonto W. ⚽, Bijol J. (A),
  • 59', 1 - 2, Tanaka A. ⚽,
  • 63', Travis L. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
  • 63', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
  • 73', Gruev I. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
  • 73', Salvesen L. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
  • 73', Clark B. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
  • 86', Gnonto W. ↓, Byram S. ↑,
  • 89', Piroe J. ↓, Stach A. ↑,
  • 89', Okafor N. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
  • 90+2', Harrison J. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 1 - 3, Justin J. ⚽, Nmecha L. (A),

Chances of winning


Derby County
16.8%		Draw
23.6%		Leeds United
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
17.8% 25.4% 56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2% 24.6% 58.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
    •

    Derby County - Leeds United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 5.6 ↑
    (5.27)    		 3.97 ↑
    (3.69)    		 1.59 ↓
    (1.65)    		 6%
    (6.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Derby County - Leeds United?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.5 - Derby (4.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Leeds (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Derby (2.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Leeds United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 12 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 25%). Leeds (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Leeds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Leeds is the team to beat.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:30. (average 1.3:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Leeds United were as follows:
    29.12.2024 Derby County - Leeds United 0:1
    07.12.2024 Leeds United - Derby County 2:0
    Latest results of Derby County
    04.01.2026 Derby County - Wrexham 1:2 ✺
    01.01.2026 Derby County - Middlesbrough 1:0 ✺
    29.12.2025 Leicester City - Derby County 2:1 ✺
    26.12.2025 Birmingham City - Derby County 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Derby County - Portsmouth 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Leeds United
    07.01.2026 Newcastle United - Leeds United 4:3 ✺
    04.01.2026 Leeds United - Manchester United 1:1 ✺
    01.01.2026 Liverpool - Leeds United 0:0 ✺
    28.12.2025 Sunderland - Leeds United 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Leeds United - Crystal Palace 4:1 ✺
    Draw
    Main

    1/128-finals
    1StokeBye
    4ByeCoventry
    5FulhamBye
    8ByeMiddlesbrough
    9StevenageChesterfield0 : 1
    10CreweDoncaster1 : 2
    12ByeSouthampton
    13CheltenhamBradford City1 : 0
    14BuxtonChatham2 : 1
    16ByeLeicester
    17TottenhamBye
    20ByeAston Villa
    21NewcastleBye
    24ByeBournemouth
    25Manchester CityBye
    27FC HalifaxExeter0 : 2
    28WycombePlymouth2 : 0
    29SalfordLincoln2 : 1
    30TamworthLeyton Orient0 : 1
    31RotherhamSwindon1 : 2
    32BoltonHuddersfield2 : 1
    33Boreham WoodCrawley3 : 0
    34NewportGillingham3 : 2
    35Brackley TownNotts Co3 : 2
    36BurtonSt. Albans6 : 0
    37West HamBye
    40ByeQPR
    41SloughAltrincham2 : 1
    42MacclesfieldAFC Totton6 : 3
    44ByeCrystal Palace
    45Sheffield WedBye
    48ByeBrentford
    49BurnleyBye
    52ByeMillwall
    53Sheffield UtdBye
    55GainsboroughAccrington1 : 2
    56MansfieldHarrogate3 : 2
    57PortsmouthBye
    60ByeArsenal
    61PrestonBye
    63WiganHemel Hempstead2 : 1
    64SpennymoorBarrow0 : 2
    65GrimsbyEbbsfleet3 : 1
    66WealdstoneSouthend1 : 0
    67ChelmsfordBraintree4 : 1
    68Weston-super-MareAldershot2 : 1
    69WolvesBye
    71SuttonAFC Telford2 : 1
    72South ShieldsShrewsbury1 : 3
    73LiverpoolBye
    75PeterboroughCardiff1 : 0
    76BarnsleyYork City3 : 2
    77Manchester UtdBye
    80ByeBrighton
    81Port ValeMaldon & Tiptree5 : 1
    82BromleyBristol Rovers1 : 2
    83FleetwoodBarnet2 : 1
    84LutonForest Green4 : 3
    85Bristol CityBye
    88ByeWatford
    89ColchesterMK Dons2 : 3
    90OldhamNorthampton3 : 1
    92ByeOxford Utd
    93EvertonBye
    96ByeSunderland
    97WrexhamBye
    100ByeNottingham
    101IpswichBye
    103BlackpoolScunthorpe1 : 0
    104ReadingCarlisle2 : 3
    105HullBye
    108ByeBlackburn
    109CharltonBye
    112ByeChelsea
    113TranmereStockport County1 : 3
    114Cambridge UtdChester3 : 0
    116ByeBirmingham
    117DerbyBye
    120ByeLeeds
    121NorwichBye
    123AFC WimbledonGateshead0 : 2
    124EastleighWalsall0 : 3
    125SwanseaBye
    128ByeWest Brom

    1/64-finals
    1StokeBye
    2ByeCoventry
    3FulhamBye
    4ByeMiddlesbrough
    5ChesterfieldDoncaster1 : 2
    6ByeSouthampton
    7CheltenhamBuxton6 : 2
    8ByeLeicester
    9TottenhamBye
    10ByeAston Villa
    11NewcastleBye
    12ByeBournemouth
    13Manchester CityBye
    14ExeterWycombe4 : 0
    15SalfordLeyton Orient4 : 0
    16SwindonBolton4 : 0
    17Boreham WoodNewport3 : 0
    18Brackley TownBurton1 : 3
    19West HamBye
    20ByeQPR
    21SloughMacclesfield1 : 3
    22ByeCrystal Palace
    23Sheffield WedBye
    24ByeBrentford
    25BurnleyBye
    26ByeMillwall
    27Sheffield UtdBye
    28AccringtonMansfield2 : 3
    29PortsmouthBye
    30ByeArsenal
    31PrestonBye
    32WiganBarrow3 : 2
    33GrimsbyWealdstone4 : 0
    34ChelmsfordWeston-super-Mare0 : 2
    35WolvesBye
    36SuttonShrewsbury1 : 2
    37LiverpoolBye
    38PeterboroughBarnsley0 : 1
    39Manchester UtdBye
    40ByeBrighton
    41Port ValeBristol Rovers1 : 0
    42FleetwoodLuton3 : 2
    43Bristol CityBye
    44ByeWatford
    45MK DonsOldham3 : 1
    46ByeOxford Utd
    47EvertonBye
    48ByeSunderland
    49WrexhamBye
    50ByeNottingham
    51IpswichBye
    52BlackpoolCarlisle4 : 1
    53HullBye
    54ByeBlackburn
    55CharltonBye
    56ByeChelsea
    57Stockport CountyCambridge Utd0 : 1
    58ByeBirmingham
    59DerbyBye
    60ByeLeeds
    61NorwichBye
    62GatesheadWalsall0 : 2
    63SwanseaBye
    64ByeWest Brom

    1/32-finals
    1StokeCoventry1 : 0
    2FulhamMiddlesbrough3 : 1
    3DoncasterSouthampton2 : 3
    4CheltenhamLeicester0 : 2
    5TottenhamAston Villa1 : 2
    6NewcastleBournemouth4 : 3
    7Manchester CityExeter10 : 1
    8SalfordSwindon3 : 2
    9Boreham WoodBurton0 : 5
    10West HamQPR2 : 1
    11MacclesfieldCrystal Palace2 : 1
    12Sheffield WedBrentford0 : 2
    13BurnleyMillwall5 : 1
    14Sheffield UtdMansfield3 : 4
    15PortsmouthArsenal1 : 4
    16PrestonWigan0 : 1
    17GrimsbyWeston-super-Mare3 : 2
    18WolvesShrewsbury6 : 1
    19LiverpoolBarnsley4 : 1
    20Manchester UtdBrighton1 : 2
    21Port ValeFleetwood1 : 0
    22Bristol CityWatford5 : 1
    23MK DonsOxford Utd1 : 2
    24EvertonSunderland1 : 2
    25WrexhamNottingham4 : 3
    26IpswichBlackpool2 : 1
    27HullBlackburn1 : 0
    28CharltonChelsea1 : 5
    29Cambridge UtdBirmingham2 : 3
    30DerbyLeeds1 : 3
    31NorwichWalsall5 : 1
    32SwanseaWest Brom2 : 3

    1/16-finals
    1StokeFulham1 : 2
    2SouthamptonLeicester2 : 1
    3Aston VillaNewcastle1 : 3
    4Manchester CitySalford2 : 0
    5BurtonWest Ham0 : 1
    6MacclesfieldBrentford0 : 1
    7BurnleyMansfield1 : 2
    8ArsenalWigan4 : 0
    9GrimsbyWolves0 : 1
    10LiverpoolBrighton3 : 0
    11Port ValeBristol City
    12Oxford UtdSunderland0 : 1
    13WrexhamIpswich1 : 0
    14HullChelsea0 : 4
    15BirminghamLeeds1 : 2
    16NorwichWest Brom3 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1FulhamSouthampton
    2NewcastleManchester City
    3West HamBrentford
    4MansfieldArsenal
    5WolvesLiverpool
    6TBD #11Sunderland
    7WrexhamChelsea
    8LeedsNorwich
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