Result
1:0
01/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 25
- Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.21 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (180/247) | 88% (466/532) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.21 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 9 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (180/247) | 88% (466/532) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (23/52) | 54% (26/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 46% (37/81) | 80% (138/173) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (3/8) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.85 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (9/18) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.04 | 1.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Sene M. K. ↓, Gilbert A. ↑,
- 59', Elder C. 🟨,
- 59', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
- 59', Brewster R. ↓, Brereton Diaz B. ↑,
- 70', 1 - 0, Clark B. ⚽, Salvesen L. (A),
- 73', Salvesen L. 🟨,
- 76', Brittain C. ↓, Silvera S. ↑,
- 77', Morris A. ↓, Nypan S. ↑,
- 78', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
- 84', Gilbert A. 🟨,
- 87', Bangura A. ↓, Browne A. ↑,
- 88', Conway T. ↓, Hamilton M. ↑,
- 90+4', Targett M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Derby County
31% | Draw
28.9% | Middlesbrough
40% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
Derby County - Middlesbrough Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.02 ↑
(2.94) |
3.25 ↓
(3.3) |
2.37 ↓
(2.41) |
6.1%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Derby County - Middlesbrough?
Users Predictions:
25 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 4 - 16%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 12 - 48%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 36%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 28.4% – 67.6%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 2 - 50%). Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Hamstring Injury)
Morris C.
(Ankle Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Middlesbrough: Lenihan D.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
McGree R.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Edmundson G.
(Injury)
Jones A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 1.1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Middlesbrough?
Derby County has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Middlesbrough won against Derby County?
Middlesbrough has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Middlesbrough were as follows:
29.11.2025
Middlesbrough
-
Derby County
2:1
01.03.2025
Middlesbrough
-
Derby County
1:0
17.08.2024
Derby County
-
Middlesbrough
1:0
Latest results of Derby County
Latest results of Middlesbrough
English League Championship Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 52 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 33 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 15 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 26 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 25 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 4 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 4 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 8 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 7 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 1 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | -2 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 0 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 0 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | -7 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | -12 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | -12 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | -5 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | -15 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | -14 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | -14 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | -10 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | -14 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | -10 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | -60 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
