Result
28/09/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
Chances of winning
El Nacional
39.8% | Draw
26.9% | Mushuc Runa
33.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
El Nacional - Mushuc Runa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.3 ↓
(2.35) |
3.45 ↑
(3.4) |
2.82 ↑
(2.7) |
8%
(9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for El Nacional - Mushuc Runa?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
- El Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
- Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 4.
- El Nacional has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Mushuc Runa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:16. (average 1.6:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 1.4:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Mushuc Runa?
El Nacional has won 7 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against El Nacional?
Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between El Nacional - Mushuc Runa were as follows:
01.06.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
El Nacional
2:3
24.11.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
El Nacional
2:2
31.10.2024
El Nacional
-
Mushuc Runa
2:0
23.10.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
El Nacional
1:2
26.05.2024
El Nacional
-
Mushuc Runa
1:0
Latest results of El Nacional
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle ✔ | 29 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 55:23 | 32 | 63 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC ✔ | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 45:32 | 13 | 53 |
| 3 | LDU Quito ✔ | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 45:30 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | U. Catolica | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 56:38 | 18 | 46 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 34:27 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Orense | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 34:32 | 2 | 46 |
| 7 | Libertad | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 41:36 | 5 | 43 |
| 8 | Emelec | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 41 |
| 9 | Aucas ✔ | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 37:40 | -3 | 40 |
| 10 | Macara ✔ | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 29:29 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | EL Nacional ✔ | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 32:41 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | Delfin | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 26:42 | -16 | 30 |
| 13 | Tecnico U | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 25:43 | -18 | 28 |
| 14 | Vinotinto | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 34:42 | -8 | 27 |
| 15 | Manta ✔ | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 33:50 | -17 | 26 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 33:50 | -17 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
LDU Quito is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Macara is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
EL Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Manta is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
