Miami vs Lexington – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:1
12/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Referee: Osmanovic E. (Usa)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.960.77
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
1210
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
28
Passes
74% (203/274)84% (379/451)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.960.77
xG on target (xGOT)
0.841.16
Total shots
1210
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
77
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
28
Touches in opposition box
1825
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1713
Passes
74% (203/274)84% (379/451)
Long passes
39% (26/67)55% (31/56)
Passes in final third
60% (41/68)62% (66/107)
Crosses
33% (2/6)29% (6/21)
Expected assists (xA)
1.070.59
Throw-ins
1822
Fouls
1317
Tackles
73% (19/26)58% (7/12)
Duels won
6754
Clearances
4214
Interceptions
69
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.160.84
Goals prevented
0.16-0.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 24', 1 - 0, Bonfiglio F. , Melano L. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Hamid B. , Martell R. ,
  • 52', Hafferty J. 🟨,
  • 59', Veron D. , Cardona N. ,
  • 60', Ajago F. 🟨,
  • 63', Mitrano A. , Celeste F. ,
  • 72', Zengue X. , Olney C. ,
  • 72', Midence A. , Burke C. ,
  • 73', Burks K. , Wu D. ,
  • 75', Blanco S. , Bent B. ,
  • 75', Melano L. , Lawrence M. ,
  • 85', Vazquez C. 🟨,
  • 90+4', 1 - 1, Burke C. , Sargeant K. (A),
  • 90+6', Celeste F. 🟨,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Miami
38.7%
Draw
26.6%
Lexington
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41% 28.3% 30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6% 28% 31%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
  • Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miami than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
  • Miami - Lexington Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.38
    (2.25)
    3.45
    (3.26)
    2.64
    (3)
    8.9%
    (8.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Miami - Lexington?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Miami (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 11).
    • Miami has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Lexington is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Lexington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Miami
    05.07.2025 Miami - Tulsa 2:2
    21.06.2025 Detroit City - Miami 2:0
    18.06.2025 Miami - Charleston Battery 1:0
    14.06.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies - Miami 2:1
    07.06.2025 Rhode Island - Miami 0:1
    Latest results of Lexington
    USL Championship Table
    2026

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Louisville City330010:469
    2Hartford Athletic32105:147
    3Tampa Bay22004:046
    4Charleston22005:326
    5Detroit21014:223
    6Indy Eleven21012:203
    7Pittsburgh31024:7-33
    8Brooklyn31022:5-33
    9Loudoun20112:3-11
    10Rhode Island20113:5-21
    11Birmingham30122:4-21
    12Miami FC20111:4-31
    13Sporting Jax20111:4-31


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Oakland Roots32105:327
    2San Antonio32103:127
    3Sacramento Republic31203:125
    4Orange County SC31203:215
    5El Paso21105:234
    6Colorado Springs31115:504
    7FC Tulsa31113:4-14
    8Phoenix Rising30214:5-12
    9Lexington20111:2-11
    10Las Vegas Lights30125:7-21
    11Monterey Bay30121:5-41
    12New Mexico20021:3-20

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)