Result
2:3
05/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.01 | 2.04 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 33 | 25 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 6.06% (2/33) | 12% (3/25) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 22 | 31 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 88% (22/25) | 93.94% (31/33) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/2) | 0% (0/3) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (3/3) | 100% (2/2) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 29 | 32 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 47.54 | 52.46 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 05:01, 1 - 0, Noiva N. (G), Juhola P. (A), Riihinen P. (A2)
- 06:42, 1 - 1, Soderlund T. (G), Ketola J. (A),
- 16:28, Olofsson J. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 0)
- 05:15, Nyman L. (2 min),
- 07:59, Lantta J. (2 min),
- 12:04, 2 - 1, Kostilainen S. (G), Jarvinen J. (A), Olofsson J. (A2)
- 3rd Period (0 - 2)
- 01:44, Piipponen S. (2 min),
- 05:34, Nurmi P. (2 min),
- 13:20, 2 - 2, Ruotsalainen V. (G), Lantta J. (A), Kononen J. (A2)
- 19:42, 2 - 3, Soderlund T. (G), Saarelainen J. (A), Ruotsalainen V. (A2)
Chances of winning
Ässät
46.7% | Draw
23.1% | KalPa
30.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (-1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
Ässät - KalPa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.99 ↑
(1.95) |
3.97 ↓
(4.15) |
3.11 ↑
(3.02) |
7.5%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Ässät - KalPa?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Ässät (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.25 - Ässät (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5 - Ässät (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.75 - Ässät (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +2.5, OT - Ässät (1.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5, OT - Ässät (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Ässät (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- EH +1 - Ässät (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- EH +2 - Ässät (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- EH +2, OT - Ässät (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Ässät (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Ässät (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Ässät (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - Ässät (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Ässät (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Period - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Ässät (votes: 15 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 4.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- KalPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Ässät has had a series of home games.
- Ässät is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 51:47. (average 2.6:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ässät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:19. (average 2.7:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Ässät won against KalPa?
Ässät has won 11 of their last 22 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has KalPa won against Ässät?
KalPa has won 11 of their last 22 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ässät - KalPa were as follows:
30.01.2026
KalPa
-
Ässät
2:3
28.11.2025
Ässät
-
KalPa
5:1
24.09.2025
KalPa
-
Ässät
4:7
09.04.2025
KalPa
-
Ässät
3:2
07.04.2025
Ässät
-
KalPa
5:0
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
