Result
5:0
25/01/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 19
- Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.27 | 0.38 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 68% | 32% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 93% (691/743) | 81% (279/346) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.27 | 0.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 4.35 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 7 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 93% (691/743) | 81% (279/346) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (15/33) | 56% (29/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 89% (198/222) | 46% (18/39) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (5/16) | 33% (1/3) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 0.53 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 87% (13/15) | 56% (10/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 7 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 4.35 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | -0.65 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (4 - 0)
- 17', 1 - 0, Vitor Carvalho ⚽,
- 23', 2 - 0, Zalazar R. ⚽, Horta R. (A),
- 30', 3 - 0, Victor P. ⚽, Zalazar R. (A),
- 33', Vitor Carvalho 🟨,
- 36', James I. 🟨,
- 45', 4 - 0, Horta R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Sandro Lima ↓, Marezi ↑,
- 46', James I. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
- 46', Lincoln ↓, Chiquinho ↑,
- 47', Chiquinho 🟨,
- 67', Zalazar R. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
- 67', Horta R. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
- 70', Figueiredo ↓, Clairicia M. ↑,
- 74', Gorby ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
- 74', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,
- 79', 5 - 0, Navarro F. ⚽, Victor P. (A),
- 80', Abdulai S. ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
- 80', Moutinho J. ↓, Vidigal S. ↑,
- 90+4', Vidigal S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Braga
63.8% | Draw
21.9% | Alverca
14.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+6.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Braga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
Braga - Alverca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.48 ↑
(1.39) |
4.32 ↓
(4.81) |
6.62 ↓
(7.7) |
5.7%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Braga - Alverca?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 15 - 93.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 82% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -1 - Braga (1.69) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Braga will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Braga (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Alverca (votes: 1 - 16.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 and 10).
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Braga has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Braga is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Braga: El Ouazzani A.
(Foot Injury)
Lagerbielke G.
(Red Card)
Noro J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Alverca: Leo Chu
(Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
Paulo A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Braga won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Alverca?
Braga has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Braga?
Alverca has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Braga - Alverca were as follows:
17.08.2025
Alverca
-
Braga
0:3
Latest results of Alverca
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
