Mainz vs Rosenborg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League Mainz - Rosenborg
Result
4:1
28/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - Qualification - Final
  • Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
chinaChinaZhiBo8
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 2
germanyGermanySWR Fernsehen
norwayNorwayVG+
serbiaSerbiaSportKlub 2
sloveniaSloveniaSportKlub 1

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.800.55
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
225
Shots on target
82
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
92
Passes
79% (287/365)71% (253/358)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
2.800.55
xG on target (xGOT)
2.940.90
Total shots
225
Shots on target
82
Shots off target
121
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
163
Shots outside the Box
62
Hit the Woodwork
20
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
92
Touches in opposition box
3612
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
62
Free Kicks
612
Passes
79% (287/365)71% (253/358)
Long passes
53% (40/75)40% (34/85)
Passes in final third
67% (101/151)52% (53/102)
Crosses
38% (13/34)22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.900.73
Throw-ins
1921
Fouls
127
Tackles
75% (15/20)73% (8/11)
Duels won
5046
Clearances
3923
Interceptions
1511
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
11
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
0.902.94
Goals prevented
-0.10-1.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 1)
  • 28', 1 - 0, Bell S. ,
  • 33', 1 - 1, Islamovic D. ,
  • 43', 2 - 1, Lee Jae-Sung , Caci A. (A),
  • 44', 3 - 1, Weiper N. , Amiri N. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Fossum I. , Reitan-Sunde J. ,
  • 54', Vaananen S. 🟨,
  • 58', 4 - 1, Amiri N. ,
  • 61', Saeter O. , Ceide E. K. ,
  • 71', Weiper N. , Sieb A. ,
  • 71', Mwene P. , Widmer S. ,
  • 73', Nebel P. 🟨,
  • 80', Caci A. , Veratschnig N. ,
  • 90', Lee Jae-Sung , Maloney L. ,
  • 90', Amiri N. , Kawasaki S. ,

Chances of winning


Mainz
70.5%
Draw
17.8%
Rosenborg
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
66.1% 19.8% 14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8% 19.3% 13.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • Rosenborg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosenborg than the current prediction. (+2%)
  • Mainz - Rosenborg Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.34
    (1.38)
    5.2
    (4.6)
    7.98
    (6.5)
    6.6%
    (9.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Rosenborg?
  • Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 22 - 78.6%). Rosenborg will win (votes: 3 - 10.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 63.4%93.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.
    • In recent matches, Mainz has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Rosenborg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Rosenborg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Mainz is the obvious favorite.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mainz won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Rosenborg were as follows:
    21.08.2025 Rosenborg - Mainz 2:1
    Latest results of Mainz
    24.08.2025 Mainz - Köln 0:1
    21.08.2025 Rosenborg - Mainz 2:1
    18.08.2025 Dynamo Dresden - Mainz 0:1
    09.08.2025 Mainz - Strasbourg 0:0
    25.07.2025 Mainz - Seekirchen 5:0
    Latest results of Rosenborg
    23.08.2025 Rosenborg - Sandefjord Postponed
    21.08.2025 Rosenborg - Mainz 2:1
    14.08.2025 Hammarby - Rosenborg 0:1
    07.08.2025 Rosenborg - Hammarby 0:0
    UEFA Europa Conference League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Zrinjski11005:053
    2AEK Larnaca11004:043
    3Sparta Prague11004:133
    4Lech Poznan11004:133
    5Lausanne11003:033
    6Celje11003:123
    7Crystal Palace11002:023
    8Rayo Vallecano11002:023
    9Fiorentina11002:023
    10Rakow11002:023
    11Shakhtar Donetsk11003:213
    12Strasbourg11002:113
    13Mainz11001:013
    14Samsunspor11001:013
    15Jagiellonia11001:013
    16Noah11001:013
    17Drita10101:101
    18KuPS10101:101
    19Hacken10100:001
    20Shelbourne10100:001
    21Aberdeen10012:3-10
    22Slovan Bratislava10011:2-10
    23Rijeka10010:1-10
    24Omonia10010:1-10
    25Legia10010:1-10
    26Hamrun10010:1-10
    27AEK Athens FC10011:3-20
    28Sigma Olomouc10010:2-20
    29Dyn. Kyiv10010:2-20
    30Shkendija10010:2-20
    31Univ. Craiova10010:2-20
    32SK Rapid10011:4-30
    33Shamrock Rovers10011:4-30
    34Breidablik10010:3-30
    35AZ Alkmaar10010:4-40
    36Lincoln Red Imps10010:5-50

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