Result
3:0
05/10/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 8
- Referee: Nobre A. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.26 | 0.70 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (312/376) | 84% (335/401) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.26 | 0.70 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.26 | 0.92 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (312/376) | 84% (335/401) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (22/45) | 62% (28/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (53/78) | 69% (94/137) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (5/13) | 18% (6/33) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.98 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 40% (6/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.92 | 3.26 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.92 | 0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 11', Clayton 🟨,
- 25', 1 - 0, Spikic D. ⚽,
- 42', 2 - 0, Andre Luiz ⚽,
- 45+1', Aguilera Zamora B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Manso T. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
- 46', Rodriguez J. ↓, Vita R. ↑,
- 46', Spikic D. ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
- 56', Rony Lopes ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
- 61', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
- 68', Petrasso F. 🟨,
- 69', Bebeto 🟨,
- 73', 3 - 0, Clayton ⚽, Andre Luiz (A),
- 75', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Moudjatovic M. ↑,
- 75', Bebeto ↓, Yarlen ↑,
- 76', Vita R. 🟨,
- 78', Panzo J. 🟨,
- 79', Vrousai M. ↓, da Silva Moreira E. ↑,
- 79', Petrasso F. ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
- 84', Ntoi A. 🟨,
- 86', Medina B. 🟨,
- 87', Andre Luiz ↓, Graca J. ↑,
- 89', Clayton 🟨,
- 90+2', Medina B. 🟨,
- 90+4', Nikitscher T. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Rio Ave
40.4% | Draw
28% | Tondela
31.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (-1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
Rio Ave - Tondela Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.38 ↓
(2.39) |
3.35 ↑
(3.31) |
2.95 ↓
(2.96) |
5.9%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Rio Ave - Tondela?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). Tondela will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rio Ave: 57.1% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Rio Ave will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 2.
- Rio Ave has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- In recent matches, Tondela has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Tondela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Rio Ave might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Rio Ave: Richards O. T. C.
(Injury)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.6:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.7:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Tondela?
Rio Ave has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Rio Ave?
Tondela has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rio Ave - Tondela were as follows:
Latest results of Rio Ave
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20:5 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Benfica | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10:4 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Braga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Nacional | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Arouca | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:19 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11:13 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Estrela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Estoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Tondela | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4:14 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:20 | -15 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
