Birmingham City vs Derby County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Championship
Result
1:1
26/12/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Championship - Round 23
  • Referee: Toner B. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
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colombiaColombiaDisney+
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denmarkDenmarkViaplay
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franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 1
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
irelandIrelandNOW
israelIsraelSport 2
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kenyaKenyaGotv
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 2
malaysiaMalaysiaAstro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 1
mexicoMexicoDisney+
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
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portugalPortugalSport TV2
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south-africaSouth-africaSupeSport ESPN
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uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.230.78
Ball Possession
73%27%
Total shots
255
Shots on target
91
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
121
Passes
85% (477/564)54% (117/215)
Yellow Cards
33
Red Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
3.230.78
xG on target (xGOT)
2.520.84
Total shots
255
Shots on target
91
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
113
Shots inside the Box
183
Shots outside the Box
72
Hit the Woodwork
20
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
121
Touches in opposition box
4712
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1317
Passes
85% (477/564)54% (117/215)
Long passes
60% (29/48)34% (26/77)
Passes in final third
79% (188/238)37% (22/60)
Crosses
13% (6/47)29% (2/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.700.83
Throw-ins
2617
Fouls
1713
Tackles
100% (12/12)74% (14/19)
Duels won
5157
Clearances
1151
Interceptions
68
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
08
xGOT faced
0.842.52
Goals prevented
-0.161.52

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 15', Gray D. ↓, Koumas L. ↑,
  • 27', 0 - 1, Agyemang P. ⚽, Brewster R. (A),
  • 29', Ward J. 🟨,
  • 39', Ward J. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
  • 46', Brewster R. ↓, Nelson C. ↑,
  • 49', Klarer C. 🟨,
  • 58', Cashin E. ↓, Sampsted A. ↑,
  • 58', Ducksch M. ↓, Furuhashi K. ↑,
  • 64', 1 - 1, Robinson J. ⚽,
  • 71', Stansfield J. 🟨,
  • 71', Langas S. 🟨,
  • 74', Paik Seung-Ho 🟨,
  • 78', Koumas L. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
  • 78', Leonard M. ↓, Willumsson W. T. ↑,
  • 85', Agyemang P. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
  • 90+2', Klarer C. 🟥,
  • 90+6', Langas S. ↓, Forsyth C. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Birmingham City
51.3%		Draw
27.6%		Derby County
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.5% 26.9% 19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2% 27.7% 19.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
  • Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2%)
    •

    Birmingham City - Derby County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.85 ↑
    (1.77)    		 3.41 ↓
    (3.52)    		 4.45 ↓
    (4.81)    		 6%
    (5.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Birmingham City - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Birmingham will win (votes: 17 - 60.7%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 21.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 42.6% – 78.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Birmingham (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Derby (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 12).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 2.
    • Recent form of Birmingham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Derby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, Birmingham is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Doyle T. (Red Card) Laird E. (Hamstring Injury) Osayi-Samuel B. (International duty) Wright S. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Hamstring Injury) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Ankle Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 29:40. (average 1.5:2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Birmingham won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:23. (average 1.3:2.3).
    Latest results of Birmingham City
    20.12.2025 Sheffield United - Birmingham City 3:0 ✺
    13.12.2025 Birmingham City - Charlton Athletic 1:1 ✺
    09.12.2025 Queens Park Rangers - Birmingham City 2:1 ✺
    06.12.2025 Southampton - Birmingham City 3:1 ✺
    01.12.2025 Birmingham City - Watford 2:1 ✺
    Latest results of Derby County
    20.12.2025 Derby County - Portsmouth 1:1 ✺
    15.12.2025 Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County 0:3 ✺
    10.12.2025 Derby County - Millwall 1:1 ✺
    06.12.2025 Derby County - Leicester City 1:3 ✺
    29.11.2025 Middlesbrough - Derby County 2:1 ✺
    English League Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Coventry35218672:383471
    2Middlesbrough35199754:351966
    3Millwall35188947:40762
    4Ipswich33179759:342560
    5Hull341861056:48860
    6Wrexham351512854:45957
    7Southampton3514111057:461153
    8Derby351491252:46651
    9Watford3513121045:41451
    10Bristol City351481348:44450
    11Preston3512131041:40149
    12Birmingham3513101246:46049
    13Sheffield Utd351531750:48248
    14Stoke351381439:34547
    15QPR351381446:54-847
    16Swansea351371540:43-346
    17Norwich351361647:44345
    18Charlton3510111433:44-1141
    19Portsmouth341091534:44-1039
    20Blackburn351081733:46-1338
    21West Brom35981834:52-1835
    22Leicester3510101547:56-934
    23Oxford Utd357111731:47-1632
    24Sheffield Wed ✔ 35182621:71-50-7

          Promotion ~ Premier League
          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
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