Result
3:2
04/12/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+, Viaplay 3 Urheilu |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.97 | 2.41 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 24 | 21 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 21 | 8 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 12.5% (3/24) | 9.52% (2/21) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 90.48% (19/21) | 87.5% (21/24) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 33.33% (1/3) | 33.33% (1/3) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 66.67% (2/3) | 66.67% (2/3) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 30 | 19 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 61.22 | 38.78 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 1)
- 01:55, Loponen M. (2 min),
- 03:54, 1 - 0, Palola O. (G), Ratinen S. (A), Pelli A. (A2)
- 05:52, 2 - 0, Pelli A. (G), Jasek L. (A), Ratinen S. (A2)
- 11:24, Johansson S. (2 min),
- 12:30, 2 - 1, Kiiskinen J. (G), Korhonen O. (A), Wright C. (A2)
- 14:46, Soini S. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 1)
- 04:34, 3 - 1, Palola O. (G), Engberg T. (A), Parikka J. (A2)
- 07:18, Kiiskinen J. (2 min),
- 10:41, 3 - 2, Jokirinne V. (G), Wright C. (A), Kukkonen M. (A2)
- 3rd Period (0 - 0)
- 09:55, Kukkonen M. (2 min),
- 12:47, Pelli A. (2 min),
Chances of winning
Ilves
53.5% | Draw
22.4% | HPK
24.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Ilves - HPK Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.75 ↓
(1.79) |
4.14 ↑
(4.01) |
3.85 ↑
(3.84) |
7.4%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Ilves - HPK?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). HPK will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 3.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, HPK has had a series of home games.
- Ilves will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 55:51. (average 2.8:2.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 3:2.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against HPK?
Ilves has won 8 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against Ilves?
HPK has won 5 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - HPK were as follows:
15.11.2025
HPK
-
Ilves
2:3
27.02.2025
Ilves
-
HPK
0:4
14.02.2025
HPK
-
Ilves
2:3
22.10.2024
Ilves
-
HPK
1:4
20.09.2024
HPK
-
Ilves
0:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 29 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 101:68 | 57 |
| 2 | Assat | 29 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 91:64 | 55 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 28 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 102:76 | 53 |
| 4 | JYP | 26 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 101:78 | 51 |
| 5 | Lukko | 28 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 81:72 | 49 |
| 6 | SaiPa | 28 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 93:75 | 47 |
| 7 | Kiekko-Espoo | 30 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 79:88 | 44 |
| 8 | KalPa | 27 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 87:88 | 43 |
| 9 | TPS Turku | 31 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 72:77 | 43 |
| 10 | Jukurit | 31 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 69:85 | 39 |
| 11 | Ilves | 27 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 76:85 | 38 |
| 12 | Pelicans | 28 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 57:67 | 38 |
| 13 | IFK Helsinki | 30 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 61:97 | 36 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 28 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 68:78 | 35 |
| 15 | Karpat | 29 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 89:99 | 32 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 27 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 60:90 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
