Result
3:2
04/10/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 8
- Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Hungary | Sport 2 |
 Kuwait | KTV Sport |
 Norway | VG+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 6 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.73 | 2.09 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (296/360) | 77% (201/260) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.73 | 2.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.65 | 0.78 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (296/360) | 77% (201/260) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (17/40) | 31% (12/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (73/110) | 46% (29/63) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (3/18) | 25% (3/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 1.48 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (6/9) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.78 | 2.65 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.22 | -0.35 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Sousa V. ⚽, Pinto D. (A),
- 15', Maracas 🟨,
- 20', Costa V. 🟨,
- 21', 1 - 1, Ramirez J. (Pen),
- 30', Yan Maranhao 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 50', Ze Vitor 🟨,
- 56', 1 - 2, Kiko Bondoso ⚽, Yan Maranhao (A),
- 59', 2 - 2, Leo Santos ⚽, Liziero (A),
- 62', Sousa V. 🟥,
- 70', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Batista G. ↑,
- 70', Alanzinho ↓, Bernardo ↑,
- 70', Yan Maranhao ↓, Landerson ↑,
- 72', Stjepanovic M. 🟨,
- 76', Labidi C. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
- 81', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
- 84', 3 - 2, Ramirez J. (Pen),
- 85', Travassos ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
- 90+1', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Nacional
38.2% | Draw
30.4% | Moreirense
31.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
Nacional - Moreirense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.63 ↑
(2.3) |
3.25 ↑
(3.21) |
3.08 ↓
(3.15) |
1.2%
(6.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional - Moreirense?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Moreirense will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 16.1% – 74.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Moreirense (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Nacional might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Knee Injury)
Deivison
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
Lucas Franca
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Moreirense: Ofori L.
(Inactive)
Rodri
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Ramirez J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Moreirense: Michel
(Inactive)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 14:32. (average 0.7:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 4:14. (average 0.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Moreirense?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Nacional?
Moreirense has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Moreirense were as follows:
27.04.2025
Moreirense
-
Nacional
1:1
14.12.2024
Nacional
-
Moreirense
1:0
18.03.2023
Nacional
-
Moreirense
0:2
09.10.2022
Moreirense
-
Nacional
3:1
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Moreirense
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20:5 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:4 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Benfica | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Braga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Nacional | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Arouca | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:19 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11:13 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Estrela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Estoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Tondela | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4:14 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:20 | -15 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
